Page 18 - MWC 3-9-2023s

The Midwest Cattleman · March 9, 2023 · P18
C
CATTLE REPORT SHOWS ATTLE REPORT SHOWS
SIGNIFIC
SIGNIFICANT HERD ANT HERD

REDUCTIONTION
REDUC

By Russell Knight and Hannah Taylor, Beef Outlook Economists, USDA – ERS

The USDA National Ag- percentage of the beginning
ricultural Statistics Service 2022 beef cow inventory than
(NASS) released its semi-an- during the last drought-in-
nual Cattle report on Jan. 31. duced cattle cycle in 2004-14.
The total number of all cattle Figure 1 shows that the
and calves on Jan. 1, 2023, Jan. 1 estimate of beef cows
was estimated at 89.3 million at 28.9 million head was
head, about 2.8 million fewer down 3% from a year ago. For
than the previous year. This additional context, the beef
marks the fourth year of con- cow herd is also down 37%
traction for aggregate beef from its historic peak in 1975
and dairy cattle inventories, of 45.7 million head and is
in the ninth year of the cur- the smallest inventory since
rent cattle cycle – the cyclical 1962. Further, producers
expansion and contraction of expressed their intentions
the national cattle herd over to retain the fewest heifers
time. The cycle is influenced since 2011, which was during
by the combined effects of the last drought-fueled con-
cattle prices and input costs tractionary period of the last
that drive cow-calf producer cattle cycle. This suggests
profitability, the gestation that producers are not opti-
period for cattle, the time mistic about growing their
needed for raising calves to herds despite a higher year-
market weight, and climate over-year outlook for cattle
conditions. prices in 2023. On the dairy
The largest category es- side, milk cow numbers were
timated in the Cattle report up 0.3%, while heifers for
is the number of beef cows, milk cow replacement were
which is particularly impact- estimated down 2.3%.
ed by those factors affecting The 2022 calf crop esti-
the cattle cycle. Over the past mate was revised down from
few years, cow-calf producers the last report to 34.5 million
have been faced with drought, head, reflecting a 2% decline
leading to less forage and year over year. The lower calf
higher feed costs, as well as crop contributed in part to
higher operating expenses, the relatively low inventory
which limits their ability to of 13.6 million calves under
maintain their herds and 500 pounds on Jan. 1, 2023,
decreases their desire to re- down 365,600 head from
tain heifers as replacements 2022. Steers 500 pounds and
or additions to their herd. As over were estimated at 16.1
a result, in 2022 producers million head, down 573,100
culled their cows at a higher head from 2022, and other