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WHAT DOES SMALLER CATTLE INVENTORY                                                       The Midwest Cattleman · March 9, 2023 · P16
                     MEAN FOR NEW PACKERS?                                           BILLS INTRODUCED TO PROTECT
         By Dr. Andrew Griffith, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,            AGAINST SEC RULES
                               University of Tennessee
         What does the smaller cat- and interest on that capital              Two bills were  recently  Both  specifically  would  help
      tle inventory mean for the  has  increased  significantly            introduced in Congress that  cattle producers by blocking
      new packers that are expect- the past couple years. These            would exempt ranchers and  invasive reporting rules.
      ed to come on line in the near  large commercial packing             farmers from the U.S. Secu-           NCBA has urged the SEC
      future?                            facilities are going to be        rities and Exchange Commis- to limit this proposed rule
                                                                           sion’s (SEC) push to enact the  to publicly traded compa-
         It is important to remind  competing  with  established
      readers that several large  packers for a limited supply             Biden administration’s pro- nies because it goes far out-
      beef packing facilities are  of cattle, and it will be diffi-        posed greenhouse gas emis- side the commission’s pri-
      being  built. Some  are new  cult to win that price war.             sions reporting rules. Sens.  mary jurisdiction and places
      ventures while others are ex-         This does not mean they        John Boozman of  Arkansas  an unreasonable burden on
      pansions of well-established  will fail, but it will result in       and Mike Braun of Indiana,  small businesses, farms, and
      packers.                           thin margins to start.            along with Rep. Frank Lucas  ranches. NCBA will continue
         The first thought that                                            from Oklahoma, introduced  to follow this issue.
      comes to mind is that com-                                           the Protect Farmers from the       KLA
      ing online when the beef cat-                                        SEC  Act in both the House
      tle inventory is at its lowest                                       and Senate chambers.  Ad-
      level in more than 60 years                                          ditionally,  Sen.  John
                                                                           Thune of South Dakota
      and heifer retention is immi-
      nent, it is going to be a tough                                      introduced the Food and
                                                                           Energy  Security  Act.
      go of it for these operations.
      The reason it will be a tough                                        These bills take various
                                                                           approaches  to  prohibit
      go is because cattle pric-
      es are expected  to increase,                                        the Biden administra-
                                                                           tion from forcing its en-
      which  means these  new op-
      erations will require more                                           vironmental,  social  and
                                                                           governance agenda onto
      capital to purchase animals
                                                                           the American  economy.



      REPLACEMENT                        contributes  to  the  limited  SELECTING                             feed and forage costs in check
      continued from page 6              number of replacement heif- continued from page 9                    requires matching the cow
                                         ers available in 2023.                                               and herd size to available
      on January 1.    These extra          The numbers suggest that  tion and profitability goals.  feed resources. Selecting re-
      heifers are assumed to come  beef cow herd expansion is  Production goals should in- placement heifers using pro-
      out of the inventory of other  not possible in 2023.    The  clude calving windows, wean- duction records, herd goals,
      heifers.  For example, on Jan- available number of bred  ing weights, the number of  and available resources al-
      uary  1, 2023, the inventory  heifers, combined with a de- calves weaned, and herd size.  lows producers to manage
      of bred beef heifers was 3.17  crease in beef cow slaughter  Profitability goals are just as  feed costs and improve heifer
      million head, made up of re- in excess of 20 percent lower  important, and replacement  selection.
      placement heifer calves from  year over year, might make it  heifers can make or break
      last year (2.14 million head)  possible to hold the beef cow  those goals.  Will the group
      and another 1.03 million  herd steady this year.  A low  of heifers stay within your
      head of extra heifers bred  level of additional herd liqui- budget, or are you select-
      out of the inventory of other  dation is more likely.    More  ing heifers that need more               SPRING 2023
      heifers from last year.   This  likely in 2023 is increased  supplemental feed to reach                 continued from page 7
      calculated total 1.03 million  retention of heifer calves and  breeding  weights?  Will  they
      head of extra heifers bred is  breeding of yearling heifers  mature into cows that match                purchase a bull capable of
      the lowest total in the data  that will fuel herd expan- available resources? Meeting                   improving genetic potential
      back to 2001.  The calculated  sion beginning in 2024.    If  the nutritional requirements              for the specific traits that will
      number of extra heifers bred  that happens, both beef cow  of growing heifers  with the                 translate to added value at
      decreased 12.1 percent year  and heifer slaughter will de- same resources they will be                  your intended marketing end-
      over  year  in  2021  and  de- crease sharply in 2023.                fed as mature cows will help      point.
      creased another 1.8 percent                                           match the heifer’s ability to        Keep the following chart in
      in 2022.                                                              perform on those feedstuffs       mind as another way to evalu-
         The decreased number                                               when they mature, thusly,         ate ownership cost of bulls on
      of beef replacement heifer                                            managing feed costs. Select       a per cow or annual basis.
      calves and extra beef heif-                                           heifers from older cows as
      ers  bred  in  2021  and  2022                                        these cows are successful in
      helps explain increased heif-                                         the current production sys-
      er slaughter the past two                                             tem, as replacement heifers
      years.  Heifers diverted from                                         must grow and  develop in
      breeding to feeding contrib-                                          similar feeding conditions.
      uted to the 4.0 percent year                                            In  the upcoming year,  in-
      over year increase in 2021                                            creased feed costs to support
      and the 4.8 percent year over                                         heifer development will need
      year increase in 2022 in heif-                                        to be analyzed to  determine
      er  slaughter.    All  of  which                                      financial feasibility. Keeping
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