Page 12 - MWC 3-9-2023s

The Midwest Cattleman · March 9, 2023 · P12
CALF PRICES STRENGTHEN, CATTLE HERD SHRINKING

Texas’ cattle herd numbers Demand for hamburgers coupled with poor
continue to shrink, but calf and steaks remains steady grazing and for-
prices remain strong, accord- despite inflation and interest age production
ing to a Texas A&M AgriLife rate hikes by the Federal Re- led many produc-
Extension Service expert. serve, which have slowed the ers to cull before
Future cattle prices could economy. But Anderson said costs surpassed
hinge on weather and sub- he wonders at what point the profit poten-
sequent grazing availability might consumer demand for tial of strong pric-
and/or input costs, such as beef decline as shoppers look es.
grain, said David Anderson, for cheaper options and how Despite wide-
AgriLife Extension livestock any decline might impact spread rain over
marketing economist, Bry- cattle prices. recent weeks,
an-College Station. Retail Calf prices in the Southern many parts of the
beef prices could be influ- Plains market were $2.31 state continue to
enced by beef imports and per pound compared to $2 experience ex-
the largest amount of beef in the same time last year and tremely dry con-
cold storage since 2016. the five-year average of $1.69 ditions, according scenario is likely to play
However, future cattle and per pound for 500–600-pound to the U.S. Drought Moni-
beef prices hinge on long- calves. They were even high- tor. Around 77% of Texas is out like the last statewide
drought in 2011, Anderson
term size of the U.S. herd, er – $2.42 per pound – at the dealing with some degree of
Anderson said. 400–500-pound weight class drought, and 31% of the state said. Prolonged drought and
an arid summer with poor
Calf prices remain strong, compared to $2.16 per pound is in severe to exceptional
and the market experienced last year and the five-year drought. grazing, hay production and
limited water resources led
recent increases, but Ander- average of $1.87 per pound. Producers in many areas
son expects herds to continue Feedlots are buying steers continue to reduce cattle Texas cattle ranchers to cut
the state herd from almost 5
to shrink in 2023. He expects amid strong cutout value, An- numbers or liquidate herds
calf and beef prices to climb, derson said. Cutout relates according to AgriLife Ex- million to 3.9 million by 2014.
Anderson said prices were
but it could be 2024 before to the value average across tension agent reports. But
the market pushes them to- seven major primal cuts, in- agents in other parts of the strong after 2012 but by
2015, calf prices were setting
ward new records. cluding chuck, loins, ribs, and state are reporting vastly im- all-time records as ranchers
“We’re getting there in briskets, at wholesale. proved soil moisture condi- moved to rebuild their herds
terms of fewer animals and Cutout values were rela- tions. and take advantage of strong
calves, but demand for cattle tively flat – $2.76 per pound There is an expectation consumer demand and re-
and beef hasn’t been subject – compared to $2.70 per that grazing on native grass-
to a supply-demand imbal- pound in 2022, but 30% high- es or improved cool-season duced supply, thus driving
beef prices upward.
ance that could really impact er than the five-year average grasses like winter wheat
“I don’t expect price es-
prices,” he said. of $2.12 per pound. Anderson and ryegrass could boom calation to happen until we
Calf prices stay strong, said retail beef prices were with sunny days and warmer rebuild the herd,” he said.
consumer demand steady down slightly compared to temperatures. “That means producers are
So far, there has been no last year. “It will take everyone de- holding back more heifers
real change in beef demand, “People are still buying ciding the drought is over to replace cows, and so there
Anderson said. A record beef, and that’s a good thing,” before the Texas herd begins will be fewer head ending up
amount of beef – 28.3 billion he said. “We had a lot of beef expanding again,” he said. in grocery stores. That pro-
pounds – was produced in out there this past year, and “Some producers with good cess really constricted the
2022 on the heels of deeper the runups in calf prices at moisture and grazing may beef and cattle markets and
than usual herd culling by that point were related to take on more calves to take drove prices up.”
Texas ranchers, according to higher production costs in re- advantage of the opportunity
the U.S. Department of Ag- lation to calf prices.” for good low-cost gains. That Texas Crop and Weather
riculture. The agency also Market imbalance likely could drive calf prices up Report
reported 544 million pounds leads to higher calf and some more, but I still don’t
of beef in cold storage, which beef prices think that causes an imbal-
is the second highest since The high cost of grains ance.”
tracking began in 1973. and other supplemental feed The market “imbalance”

LIFE the rear-wheel fender, so that boot and looked up and down in for supper, Dad quietly
continued from page 5 I could be the one to get off my leg, by the illumination of instructed, “There’s no need
and on, to open and close the his pipe lighter, there wasn’t to tell your mother about
ternoon, that the weather gates. As the little tractor even the slightest scratch. the tractor.” I nodded, in
permitted. bounced across the rough- “Does it hurt?” he asked complete understanding, be-
One evening, I guess I went er corners of the plowing nervously. “Can you wiggle cause, again, I still wanted to
a little beyond dark, and Dad land, I, too, bounced off, and your toes?” be a plowboy the next day.
came down to the field to my left foot went under the Because of the fluffiness of Jerry’s daily exploits on
make sure I was OK. As I tractor wheel in the freshly freshly-plowed silt loam, and the farm are now viewable on
quit for the day, my father turned soil. Dad, in more of the relatively light weight of YouTube at “lifeissimple678”.
proceeded to drive the tractor a panic than I had ever seen, an 8N tractor, I answered,
back to the barn, while I rode stopped immediately and “No and Yes.”
with my feet on the running jumped off to inspect my foot As we got back to the
board, with my butt against and leg. After he unlaced the house, and before we went