Page 28 - MWC 02-25-2021s

Cold Weather, Grade Expectations The Midwest Cattleman · February 25, 2021 · P28

By Paul Dykstra, CAB
Fed cattle prices were steady gain will be stalled for a period year but are now poised
in the first half of February, of days in many cases as nutri- to decline rapidly under
averaging $114/cwt. in each of ent intake is channeled toward recent weather devel-
those two weeks. Live Cattle fu- maintenance needs. opments. Analysis of
tures contracts have been pric- Some of the futures market feedlot placement data
ing higher this month despite rally can likely be attributed to indicates that carcass
choppy movement since late last the recent weather pattern that weights should move
week. Several deliveries against had been forecast several days much lower as spring
the February contract have been in advance. The prospect and re- nears, taking on a more
tendered in recent days due to ality of lighter carcass weights seasonal pattern.
the weak basis. This has had a plus lost production efficiencies The country is in a bit of a demand when the trends dip or
negative impact on the February are bullish factors for futures mess this week with all of the flatten for those primals. But
contract as the market tries to prices in the short term. weather disruptions changing not this year.
force convergence with the spot The other side of the coin is the normal movement of beef By taking price per pound and
cash value. the smaller fed cattle slaughter product and cattle. Focusing the weight of the primal by two
Extreme winter conditions last week and further process- on daily beef prices in the spot per carcass, we can figure the
and temperatures well below ing disruptions this week due market this week may not pro- value each of the middle meat
zero have been widespread to weather impacts and rolling vide a good measure of demand. items adds to the wholesale car-
across the country impacting blackouts causing temporary Even so, year-to-date boxed beef cass value.
most of the major central cattle plant shutdowns. This doesn’t values are convincing enough A look at rib, strip and ten-
feeding region. Feedlot weight help with cattle throughput with cutout prices poised well derloin trends (see table) shows
during a period when above a year ago. them up 121%, 129% and 108%,
fed supplies are ample Aside from the chuck roll respectively, above last year’s
and need to stay cur- most of the end meats trended values for the same timeframe.
rent to keep weights lower last week. The few with The market was still operating
down and clean up an upward price trajectory are "normally" during the first part
feedyard inventories cheaper than a year ago and of 2020, so that comparing them
of heavy cattle. That justifiably can see price appre- to an average of the three years
will apply downward ciation. prior tells a similar story.
market pressure. MIDDLE MEATS HEAT UP We can’t lay our hands on
Latest confirmed DURING TYPICAL SLUMP all the reasons this pronounced
steer weights are still The early months of the year spike is happening, but gener-
19 lb. higher than last are often dull for middle meat ally conclude it’s influenced by
continued on page 30

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61 Bulls • 69 Females
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