Page 8 - MWC 2-24-2022s

The Midwest Cattleman · February 24, 2022 · P8

MARKET REPORT

Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Daily

Live Cattle: Feeder Cattle:
Gains of $5/cwt. have been seen since mid-January. Processing Sale barn prices have remained quite stout this year. We are
plant issues are back under control and recent concerns about into the heavy part of the marketing season for 7-weight feeders
imports of live cattle from Canada and avian flu in the US have right now and prices are up $3 since the first week of the year.
helped. February was already set for higher trade given a pocket Feeders are running 20% over last year. A portion of that is obvi-
of reasonable fed cattle numbers ahead of the spring supply flush. ously higher corn. 5-weight calf prices are normally strong after
There is no question about higher prices this year than last. Beef the big fall sales push but current pricing is even better than ex-
Feeder Cattle: All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
Live Cattle: My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now. I’ve been
production will decline year over year starting in the transition pected at $15 over the first week of the year. They are now 24%
pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least. I do feel
placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now. I may need to temporarily
from summer to fall and the US consumer may have another light the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
place this on “hold” for a while. The higher placements the last three months will over last year.
have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
demand increase in this post-virus environment. further. The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
Our general long term story here continues to hold. Feeder num-
who wait”. I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders. Let’em get caught up a
We still expect futures to see pressure in the weeks ahead. Mid- bers outside of feedlots are in tight supply given large placements
least the end of the year. Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
for about a month. Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year. This weeks in prior months. There is no help from the coming calf crop mar-
March should be the start of a good supply increase, seasonally This market will rally....wait and see.

and year over year. $135 is our price for April futures, implying ketings that start this fall. That’s another 1.2% year/year decrease
report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year. This ain’t good. Low
imports and high exports have held this market up all summer. We’re starting to
around $138 for cash mid-month. there. On top of that let’s point out beef cow culling numbers are
lose some of that. I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.
even higher than last year’s huge number so far.
Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
and my not be suitable for all investors. The recommendations
Rich Nelson express opinions of the author. The information they contain is
Allendale Inc. Allendale Inc. obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
815-578-6161 teed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.
rnelson@allendale-inc.com Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
What Does this Report Mean to Me?
Q #1
Q: What are feedlot recommendations ahead?
What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011
Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April. Demand is
A: We have a little movement past our $142 and $138 50% sold recommendation for April and June fed
going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
cattle, all April – August finishers. We’d wrap up the rest at $150 and $143. This is for all April – August
Q #2
finishing cattle. Our prior recommended feeder cattle and corn booking recommendations turned out
Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
well. At current corn and feeder prices we are not too interested in long term upside protection.
calves for a while or letting them go?
Q: Is there a risk to the bullish big picture cattle expectation?
Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions? This will depend upon your weaning sched-
ule and your available feed supply. I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
A: There are two main risks. What if the Fed does raise interest rates too quickly? There is historical
right now probably dictates letting them go. If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
minimize the grain in the ration. Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn. If the fat market
recession risk here. The second is corn pricing. Though no one in the world wants to believe trend yield
stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
is possible in the US this year. If it does there some moderate downside for calves and feeders.
for “higher feeders” is “Hope”.
November 6th

Auction

Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
Sale at 12:30
Sale Offering
16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months RH Standard Lad 0313
16 - Spring Calving Bred Females Solid As A Rock Sire Group
16 - Spring Calving Black Females Reynolds Herefords
Bred to Hereford Bulls
8 - Fall Calving Pairs 1071 County Road 1231
6 - Show Steer Prospects
Both Horned & Polled Offered Huntsville, MO 65259
Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on
Display 3:00 P.M.
CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M. • Barb: 660-676-4788
Call or E-Mail for Catalog Email: reynoldscattle@cvalley.net