Page 6 - MWC 2-24-2022s

Cattle Cycle Scenario 1: The Midwest Cattleman · February 24, 2022 · P6

More and Worse Drought

By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University

The list of factors that will Beyond cattle invento- that drought may persist in
shape cattle markets in 2022 ries, current drought mea- regions of the west and north-
is lengthy and leads to mul- surements and data on hay ern plains that have been in
tiple scenarios for cattle and stocks indicate the general drought (with some improve-
beef industry outcomes for forage situation in various ment in the Pacific North-
the coming year. The recently regions and high costs for west), and where drought
released USDA Cattle report feed and other inputs must has recently developed in
confirms the cattle inventory be balanced against higher southern plains and perhaps or May this predominantly
situation at the beginning of and rising cattle prices. expand even further into the spring-born calving region
the year and provides some Drought will be the prin- central plains region. could be faced with signifi-
cant additional liquidation
indications of what the cattle cipal determinant of the Drought has impacted
industry would like to do in general cattle industry sce- some regions since 2020. of cows or cow-calf pairs this
the coming year…or at least nario in 2022. The current Widespread drought in 2022 year on top of the 8.0 percent
what might be possible in the Climate Prediction Center could result in much more herd liquidation in this re-
gion since 2020. This region
coming year. drought outlook suggests pronounced cow herd liqui-
dation and relocation than represents 15.1 percent of the
previously and the scenar- national beef cow herd. The
io will be all about what we four-state region of Colorado,
have to do. There will be New Mexico, Arizona, and
little flexibility in regions Utah has suffered in drought
that were in drought in 2020 conditions since 2020 and
and 2021. For example, De- has seen an 11.6 percent beef
cember 1 hay stocks in the cow herd liquidation in the
four-state region of Montana, past two years. Persistent
Wyoming, North and South drought will result in addi-
Dakota were down 40.2 per- tional liquidation this year.
cent year over year. By April continued on page 26