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The Midwest Cattleman · August 19, 2021 · P8


       Live Cattle                                                           Feeder Cattle Daily

      Live Cattle:                                                          Feeder Cattle:
         Though there are some concerns over COVID’s impact on                Prices at the sale barn continue to sizzle. Feeders are running
      the economy in the coming months, the trade still feels confi- 15% over two years ago. Calves, as they prepare for the heavy fall
      dent about continued slow improvements to beef demand and  sales season, are running 13% over two years ago. These are the
      lower supplies as we get into fall/winter up ahead. End user pro- best calf prices for August sales in six years. That will carry over
        Live Cattle:  My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now.  I’ve been
                                                                               Feeder Cattle:  All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
      curement for October and beyond needs has been strong for five  into the higher volume calf sales ahead. The three year liquida-
       placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now.  I may need to temporarily
                                                                            pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least.  I do feel
      weeks, +154% from last year and +80% from two years ago in the        the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
       place this on “hold” for a while.  The higher placements the last three months will  tion of beef cows, and already-heavy placements of the 2020 calf
      same period.                                                          crop, have insured a tight supply of replacement animals at this
       have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
                                                                            further.  The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
       who wait”.  I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the   they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders.  Let’em get caught up a
         Wholesale beef has recovered 70% of heavy losses posted from  time. Additionally, we are still discussing expectations of a slow
       least the end of the year.  Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now   little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
      early June to later July. Cash cattle prices have not seen much       This market will rally....wait and see.
       for about a month.  Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year.  This weeks  improvement to beef demand and better share of the retail beef
      upside in the short term from this change. We suggest it won’t  dollar due to more plants in the years ahead.

       report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year.  This ain’t good.  Low
       imports and high exports have held this market up all summer.  We’re starting to
      be until after August rolls around when cattle pick up on the
       lose some of that.  I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.
      beef rally. That will be the time when lower placements begin to
      change the current supply narrative.
                                                                                                  Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
                                                                                                  and my not be suitable for all investors.  The recommendations
       Rich Nelson                                                                                express opinions of the author.  The information they contain is
       Allendale Inc.                             Allendale Inc.                                  obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
       815-578-6161                                                                               teed.  The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
                                                                                                  including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.                                                                  Opinions, market data, and
                                                                                                  recommendations are subject to change at any time.
       What Does this Report Mean to Me?
        Q #1
       Q: Has USDA’s finding of below trend US corn yields restarted our feed cost concern?
       What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011
       Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April.  Demand is
       A: It is reason for a higher level of pricing but not a new uptrend in our opinion. There are arguments
       going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
       that August weather will help bring another yield decline when factored in next month. On the other
       hand, there is extensive history showing that yield declines in August become yield increases when the
        Q #2
        Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
       combines roll.
       calves for a while or letting them go?
       Q: If I have the moisture, should I consider expansion?
       Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions?  This will depend upon your weaning sched-
       ule and your available feed supply.  I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
       A: Generally, playing the opposite side of the expansion/contraction game in the cattle cycle is the way
       right now probably dictates letting them go.  If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
       to go. We feel confident in suggesting there are three years ahead of falling supplies and higher prices.
       minimize the grain in the ration.  Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn.  If the fat market
       Past that point we are not that confident. This may be a time to pick up lightly seasoned cows rather than
       stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
       a full long term investment into higher risk heifers.
       for “higher feeders” is “Hope”.
                                                                             November  6th
                                                                               Lunch at 11:00 a.m.

                                                                                   Sale at 12:30
                                                                                      Sale Offering
                                                                              16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
                                                                              16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months             RH Standard Lad 0313
                                                                              16 - Spring Calving Bred Females                Solid As A Rock Sire Group
                                                                              16 - Spring Calving Black Females  Reynolds Herefords
                                                                                      Bred to Hereford Bulls
                                                                              8 -    Fall Calving Pairs          1071 County Road 1231
                                                                              6 -    Show Steer Prospects
                                                                              Both Horned & Polled Offered        Huntsville, MO 65259
                                                                                                          Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
                                                                               November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on
                                                                                      Display 3:00 P.M.
                                                                                    CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M.        • Barb: 660-676-4788
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