Page 28 - MWC 9-14-2023s

MARKET REPORT
OPTIONS FOR drying process does not de- The Midwest Cattleman · September 14, 2023 · P28
continued from page 27 crease nitrates, so this hay
may need to be diluted in the
Feeder Cattle Daily
Live Cattle SHORT SUPPLIES This narrowing premium
Harvesting high-nitrate diet with other forages low in continued from page 17 gap is typical of a market
forage as silage nitrates. the holiday, and wholesale where short supplies result in
If done right, ensiling can •Grinding and blending of higher prices across all qual-
decrease nitrate content of the low and high nitrates hay is prices will seek an early fall ity offerings. The CAB tradi-
low mid-October. In the last
forage by 40 to 60%. Ensiling best to reduce risk. 5 years, the CAB cutout price tional (Premium Choice) cut-
is one of the best ways to de- •Feeding a couple pounds dropped 7% from the last out premium above Choice is
crease the potential nitrate of grain per cow each day can week in August to the third currently record-wide, pull-
toxicity of a forage, so this also help reduce risk. week in October. ing back from $21.93/cwt. to
is an option worth consider- •Producers should unroll The five-year average also $18.00/cwt. in the past two
ing. Warm season annuals the low nitrate hay first, then shows the fourth quarter weeks. One might estimate
such as corn, sorghum, sor- after they have consumed trend brings on a nearly 5% that this premium spread
ghum-sudan and pearl millet most of the low nitrate hay, price recovery from the Octo- could also be subject to fur-
can all be harvested as silage roll out high nitrate hay, if ber low through early Decem- ther compression in the near
as can small cereals such as blending the hay isn’t possi- ber. Interestingly, the August term given what we’ve ob-
oats, barley, cereal rye, and ble. Be sure animals are not CAB cutout value has conse- served with the Prime pre-
wheat. hungry when eating the high quently been higher than the mium.
•Harvesting at the prop- nitrate hay (slow intake is The Choice/Select spread
Live Cattle: My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now. I’ve been fourth quarter high in this
Feeder Cattle: All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
er moisture content (65-70%) key to reducing risk). period. This is a result of the remains historically robust at
pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least. I do feel
placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now. I may need to temporarily
and packing it well are keys •To adapt the cattle, start increasing trend toward for- $26.07/cwt. in today’s USDA
place this on “hold” for a while. The higher placements the last three months will
the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
to lowering the nitrate con- by feeding the lowest-ni- ward sales of middle meats report. While lack of demand
further. The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
for Select carcasses is an ar-
tent. trate hay and then work up they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders. Let’em get caught up a
who wait”. I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the
to higher levels. Even with
chopper
the
•Raising
least the end of the year. Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now in the August timeframe for chaic price measure for car-
little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
adaptation, feeding hay free-
for about a month. Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year. This weeks fourth quarter demand. cass values, the Choice/Select
This market will rally....wait and see.
height can also decrease the
choice is risky when the hay
report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year. This ain’t good. Low While we could expect spread remains the founda-
amount of nitrates in the si-
imports and high exports have held this market up all summer. We’re starting to cutout prices to follow the
lage, as the highest concen- has higher than 2,100 ppm tional and most seasonally
lose some of that. I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes. outlined historic pattern,
trations are usually in the NO3-N. This is because there fed cattle supplies are set to variable quality grade com-
lower stem of the plant. are likely to be “hot spots” be tighter for the period. As ponent on most packer grids.
•Letting the silage ferment in the hay with high nitrate well, weekly spot market beef Thus, the feedyard’s realized
Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
and my not be suitable for all investors. The recommendations
for at least 21 days will be content that could result in a sales in the fourth quarter price for every carcass at, or
Rich Nelson
express opinions of the author. The information they contain is
Allendale Inc.
above, Low Choice quality
Allendale Inc.
most effective. cow consuming a much high- obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
teed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
815-578-6161 er load of nitrate. will center on holiday mid- grade is highly dependent
Silage should be sampled
including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.
rnelson@allendale-inc.com
Opinions, market data, and
and analyzed before feeding •Do not feed hay, straw, dle-meat roast demand due on the Choice/Select spread.
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
to highlight items capturing
What Does this Report Mean to Me? With the feedyard’s share of
or fodder suspected of being
to ensure the amount of si-
high prices.
high in nitrate when it is
the Choice/Select spread typ-
lage in the ration provides
This discussion factors
acceptable nitrate levels in damp. Damp hay tends to back to grid pricing for fed ically ranging near 30% of the
Q #1
the diet. Producers should be more toxic because some total, a spread value larger
What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011 cattle and expected quali-
target an initial diet content of the nitrate already has than $20/cwt., for instance, is
ty price spreads. CattleFax
been converted to the more
Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April. Demand is
a key driver to motivate high
of less than l000 ppm N03-N.
toxic nitrite before being con-
Animals can then be adapt-
going to have to kick in though in order to get it. recently points out that the quality carcass production.
ed to higher levels by slow- sumed. Prime cutout premium over Current market values are
Choice, roughly $35/cwt.,
Q #2
ly increasing the inclusion Producers with high ni- providing confidence in this
is nearly half what it was
trate forage who need as-
Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned direction.
of high nitrate silage in the
diet. Over time cattle can be sistance with developing a a year ago. This is a sign of In the waning days ahead
calves for a while or letting them go?
buyer price sensitivity and
adapted to consume diets up management plan can con- of Labor Day spot market
pushback for the highest
tact their local extension ed-
Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions? This will depend upon your weaning sched- beef prices are posting posi-
to 4,000 ppm N03-N.
priced, highest quality beef
ucator.
ule and your available feed supply. I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of tive numbers, boosting a bit
Harvesting high nitrate (disregarding niche prod- of optimism into the total
right now probably dictates letting them go. If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
forage for hay UNL BEEF ucts). However, the weighted beef complex.
minimize the grain in the ration. Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn. If the fat market
average grid premium across
For some situations, hay
stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
packers for Prime carcasses
may be the only option. The
for “higher feeders” is “Hope”. this week is $18.49/cwt., just
25% lower than a year ago.
November 6th
Auction
Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
Sale at 12:30
Sale Offering
16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months RH Standard Lad 0313
16 - Spring Calving Bred Females Solid As A Rock Sire Group
16 - Spring Calving Black Females Reynolds Herefords
Bred to Hereford Bulls
8 - Fall Calving Pairs 1071 County Road 1231
6 - Show Steer Prospects
Both Horned & Polled Offered Huntsville, MO 65259
573-641-5270 November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
Display 3:00 P.M.
CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M. • Barb: 660-676-4788
Call or E-Mail for Catalog Email: reynoldscattle@cvalley.net