Page 8 - MWC 10-26-2023s

The Midwest Cattleman · October 26, 2023 · P8

MARKET REPORT

Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Daily

Live Cattle: Feeder Cattle:
Fed cattle pricing in the Southern Plains has pushed back up Cash feeder prices have fallen $19/cwt off the year’s peak post-
to $184/$185. That is well off the $177/$178 lows in July. It is ed just four weeks ago. The general seasonal for pricing, a peak
quite important as this is an exact retest of the year’s peak pric- in early August then a decline into March, appears to be back on
ing in June. Nebraska is still within $3 of testing its prior peak. track. This year’s peak was six weeks late. A moderate rebound in
Live Cattle: My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now. I’ve been
Feeder Cattle: All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now. I may need to temporarily
pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least. I do feel
Futures are priced with the belief we’ll see choppy trade near corn pricing has been a contributing factor. We could see another
the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
place this on “hold” for a while. The higher placements the last three months will
current pricing the remainder of the year. four weeks of general pressure still ahead. Let’s keep this decline,
have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those further. The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
As discussed in the prior issue we still hold a little concern though sharp, in perspective. Current prices are still 45% over
who wait”. I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders. Let’em get caught up a
about fed cattle pricing from economic factors. The market has little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
least the end of the year. Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now last year. Calf prices have held pricing remarkably well this fall.
changed its view of future interest rate policy. The stock market This market will rally....wait and see.
for about a month. Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year. This weeks There has been only a minimal $10/cwt. dip from the year’s highs

has been in a downtrend for now three months. Though the very into the year’s seasonal low in October. Current pricing is 57%
report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year. This ain’t good. Low
imports and high exports have held this market up all summer. We’re starting to
positive general supply story remains in place for beef, we could over last year.
lose some of that. I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.
see light weakness remain through next month.
Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
and my not be suitable for all investors. The recommendations
Rich Nelson express opinions of the author. The information they contain is
Allendale Inc. Allendale Inc. obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
815-578-6161 teed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.
rnelson@allendale-inc.com Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
What Does this Report Mean to Me?
Q #1
Q: How aggressive could this corn market get?
What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011
Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April. Demand is
A: From a big picture perspective, the heavy supply narrative is still in place. Corn bulls can be happy pricing has not hit those very
going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
low prices implied by two billion ending stocks, $4.30 futures. Argentina has yet to see the beneficial rain pattern shift normally seen in
Q #2
El Nino years. The chart would allow a short term move potentially to $5.30. We would not expect prices to remain up there.
Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
calves for a while or letting them go?
Q: Is it time to lift hedges?
Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions? This will depend upon your weaning sched-
A: With the general tight supply story still involved in this year’s pricing we are a little more open to lifting hedges than in normal
ule and your available feed supply. I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
years. Back in August we discussed a hedge for future planned sales. It put a floor in via January futures at $248 and allowed upside
right now probably dictates letting them go. If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
to $256. We would remove this protection if futures reach $236. Now let’s discuss the buy side. We’ve previously suggested buyers
minimize the grain in the ration. Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn. If the fat market
stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
follow the general seasonal and to hold from long term buys. The seasonal low for futures is in December. For cash it is March. If
for “higher feeders” is “Hope”.
we do see the January dip to $236 we would suggest all 2024 feeder needs to be fully hedged.
November 6th
Auction

Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
Sale at 12:30
Sale Offering
16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months RH Standard Lad 0313
16 - Spring Calving Bred Females Solid As A Rock Sire Group
16 - Spring Calving Black Females Reynolds Herefords
Bred to Hereford Bulls
8 - Fall Calving Pairs 1071 County Road 1231
6 - Show Steer Prospects
Both Horned & Polled Offered Huntsville, MO 65259
Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on
Display 3:00 P.M.
CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M. • Barb: 660-676-4788
Call or E-Mail for Catalog Email: reynoldscattle@cvalley.net