Page 6 - MWC 10-26-2023s

The Herd Rebuilding Challenge The Midwest Cattleman · October 26, 2023 · P6

By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University

There can be little doubt beef cow herd at 28.9 million After record
that the biggest issue in the head, is the smallest since beef pro-
cattle industry right now is 1962. The beef cow herd has duction in
the question of when herd continued to decrease in 2023 2022, due to
rebuilding will begin. The and will be smaller yet going drought liq-
challenge of herd rebuilding into 2024. uidation, beef
can be summed up with the Domestic and internation- production is
following three questions. al demand for U.S. beef will falling in 2023 and expect- cows are located. While herd
support and encourage a sig- ed to fall sharply for at least liquidation is likely still hap-
What do we need to do? nificantly larger herd going two more years. By 2025, pening in some regions, from
Drought-forced herd liqui- forward. This will require beef production is forecast to a national perspective, herd
dation due to roving drought increased heifer retention be down 15-16 percent from liquidation has slowed or
from 2020-2022 has pushed and reduced cow culling that the 2022 level. This will be stopped. Beef cow slaugh-
the beef herd smaller than will further squeeze cattle the lowest level since 2015 ter is down year over year in
intended and smaller than it slaughter and beef produc- and possibly the lowest level 2023 but is not down enough
needs to be. The January 1 tion for at least 2-3 years. since 1993. Herd rebuilding to suggest that the cow herd
will be needed and encour- has fully stabilized.
aged by the market. Moreover, the continued
liquidation of cows and heif-
What can we do? ers in recent years means that
Persistent drought is mak- the industry has little ability
ing it difficult to stop herd to begin any herd expansion
liquidation, never mind sta- soon. The latest monthly
bilizing and then rebuilding slaughter data shows that
the herd. As of early October, total female (cow+heifer)
40 percent of the U.S. is in slaughter has averaged 51.7
some stage of drought with percent of total cattle slaugh-
23 percent in D2 (Severe) to ter in the last year, the high-
D4 (Exceptional) drought. est average rate since 1986.
This includes regions where It will take several months
significant numbers of beef continued on page 10

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