Page 6 - MWC 8-25-2022s

The Midwest Cattleman · August 25, 2022 · P6
Hay Supplies Tight; Record Hay Prices

By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University
The August Crop Produc- cast at 116.8 million tons, duction. The total hay supply drought in
tion report released recent- down 2.9 percent from one is projected to be down 3.4 2021 leading
ly by USDA-NASS included year ago and down 10.1 per- percent year over year and is to a 50.5 per-
forecasts for hay production cent from the 2011-2020 av- down 11.0 percent from the cent decrease
in selected states and the erage. Alfalfa and other hay ten-year average (Table 1). in May 1,
U.S. Total production of al- prices are forecast at record 2022, stocks. South Dakota
falfa hay in 2022 is forecast levels in 2022. Among six of the top ten is seeing a 65.5 percent year
at 49.1 million tons, down Drought reduced hay pro- hay states, either reduced over year increase in hay
0.3 percent from 2021 levels duction in 2021 with contin- May 1 stocks or reduced 2022 production in 2022. However,
and 13.6 percent below the ued impacts in 2022. May 1 hay production or both are because of drought last year,
ten-year average from 2011- hay stocks were down 6.9 per- contributing to significant total 2022 hay supply is up
2020. All other hay produc- cent year over year but were reductions in hay supplies just 17.4 percent year over
tion for 2022 is forecast at down 16.9 percent from the (Table 1). Low May 1 stocks year compared to the 32-year
67.7 million tons, down 4.6 2011-2020 average. The total reflects carryover drought low in 2021. Montana, like
percent year over year and hay supply for the 2022-2023 impacts from 2021. Reduced South Dakota, is also seeing
down 7.4 percent from the hay crop year (May-April) is 2022 hay production is the recovery in hay production in
ten-year average. Total 2022 the sum of May 1 (beginning) result of drought and/or high 2022 (from drought-reduced
U.S. hay production is fore- hay stocks and 2022 hay pro- input costs including fertiliz- production last year), up 13.3
er and fuel. The effects are percent year over year. How-
cumulative. ever, severely reduced car-
For example, in Texas, ryover from last year means
which had relatively less that total Montana hay sup-
drought 2021, May 1 stocks plies are down 0.9 percent
were up 33.3 percent year from last year and are at
over year but a 28.7 percent the lowest level since 1989.
decrease in hay production Oklahoma had both reduced
this year results in a 22.5 per- May 1 stocks and reduced
cent reduction in 2022 hay hay production in 2022 lead-
supply. Nebraska is in a sim- ing to a 17.2 percent reduc-
ilar situation. In contrast,
South Dakota had severe continued on page 9

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