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The Midwest Cattleman · August 25, 2022 · P6
      Hay Supplies Tight; Record Hay Prices

                                                 By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University
         The  August Crop Produc- cast  at 116.8 million tons,  duction.  The total hay supply  drought                    in
      tion  report  released  recent- down 2.9 percent from one  is projected to be down 3.4  2021 leading
      ly by USDA-NASS included  year ago and down 10.1 per- percent year over year and is  to a 50.5 per-
      forecasts for hay production  cent from the 2011-2020 av- down 11.0 percent from the  cent decrease
      in selected states and the  erage.  Alfalfa and other hay  ten-year average (Table 1).                  in  May 1,
      U.S.   Total  production  of  al- prices are forecast at record                                         2022, stocks.  South Dakota
      falfa hay in 2022 is forecast  levels in 2022.                          Among six of the top ten  is seeing a 65.5 percent year
      at 49.1 million tons, down            Drought reduced hay pro- hay states, either reduced  over year increase in hay
      0.3 percent from 2021 levels  duction in 2021 with contin- May 1 stocks or reduced 2022  production in 2022. However,
      and  13.6 percent  below the  ued impacts in 2022.  May 1  hay production or both are  because of drought last year,
      ten-year average from 2011- hay stocks were down 6.9 per- contributing to significant  total 2022 hay supply is up
      2020.  All other hay  produc- cent year over year but were  reductions in hay supplies  just 17.4 percent year over
      tion for 2022 is forecast at  down 16.9 percent from the  (Table 1).  Low May 1 stocks  year compared to the 32-year
      67.7 million tons,  down 4.6  2011-2020 average. The total  reflects carryover drought  low  in  2021.    Montana,  like
      percent year over  year and  hay supply for the 2022-2023  impacts from 2021.  Reduced  South Dakota, is also seeing
      down 7.4 percent from the  hay crop year (May-April) is  2022 hay  production is the  recovery in hay production in
      ten-year average.  Total 2022  the sum of May 1 (beginning)  result of drought and/or high  2022 (from drought-reduced
      U.S. hay production is fore- hay stocks and 2022 hay pro- input costs including fertiliz- production last year), up 13.3
                                                                            er and fuel.  The effects are  percent year over year.  How-
                                                                            cumulative.                       ever, severely  reduced  car-
                                                                              For example, in  Texas,  ryover from last year means
                                                                            which had relatively less  that total Montana hay sup-
                                                                            drought 2021, May 1 stocks  plies are down 0.9 percent
                                                                            were up 33.3 percent year  from last year and are at
                                                                            over year but a 28.7 percent  the lowest level since 1989.
                                                                            decrease in hay production  Oklahoma had both reduced
                                                                            this year results in a 22.5 per- May 1 stocks and reduced
                                                                            cent reduction in 2022 hay  hay production in 2022 lead-
                                                                            supply.  Nebraska is in a sim- ing to a 17.2 percent reduc-
                                                                            ilar situation.   In contrast,
                                                                            South Dakota had severe                          continued on page 9

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