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The Midwest Cattleman · October 5, 2023 · P8


       Live Cattle                                                           Feeder Cattle Daily

      Live Cattle:                                                          Feeder Cattle:
         The Federal Reserve’s recent view of interest rates, “maybe          It is not hard to see why feeder futures have been hit hard
      higher and lasting higher longer”, has created a light amount of  recently. Good gains in the sale barn, contrary to the seasonal
      concern. The stock market’s response, and government shutdown  of an early August peak, pushed cash prices to a whopping 51%
      concerns have caught the interest of the cattle market. Recent  gain over last year! Is it possible that we just posted a multi-week
      weakness is not a panic time for the fed cattle side in the long  high? It is certainly possible. In normal years this is a time of
      term though. We’re still holding almost the entirety of the year’s  lower pricing into Q1 lows for cash, December for futures. Is this
      general rally. The US consumer is still eyeing a generally tight  the end for the 2023 – 2026 dream story? Absolutely not. Our
        Live Cattle:  My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now.  I’ve been
                                                                               Feeder Cattle:  All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
      labor market. From a supply perspective the real tightness is still  moderate year over year declines in beef production in 2023 will
       placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now.  I may need to temporarily
                                                                            pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least.  I do feel
      ahead. Current feedlot inventories, 40% of which are heifers, will  continue in 2024. When expansion does start at some point down
       place this on “hold” for a while.  The higher placements the last three months will
                                                                            the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
      one day be down to 32% - 34%.                                         the road, and those heifers are not in the feedlot, pricing will get
                                                                            further.  The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
       have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
       who wait”.  I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the  quite serious.
                                                                            they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders.  Let’em get caught up a
                                                                              We still have hedges on for producers that enable upside to
       least the end of the year.  Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now   little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
       for about a month.  Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year.  This weeks   $256 via the January. We’re still patient with long hedges for buy-
                                                                            This market will rally....wait and see.

       report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year.  This ain’t good.  Low   ers. We still hope to procure the entire slug of 2024 feedlot needs
       imports and high exports have held this market up all summer.  We’re starting to
       lose some of that.  I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.  on a good-sized correction.
                                                                                                  Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
                                                                                                  and my not be suitable for all investors.  The recommendations
       Rich Nelson                                                                                express opinions of the author.  The information they contain is
       Allendale Inc.                             Allendale Inc.                                  obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
       815-578-6161                                                                               teed.  The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
                                                                                                  including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.                                                                  Opinions, market data, and
                                                                                                  recommendations are subject to change at any time.
       What Does this Report Mean to Me?
        Q #1
       Q: Is there any change for the view on corn pricing?
       What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011
       Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April.  Demand is
       A: No. Even with yield declines still set for the US in the coming months, this year’s +8 million harvested acres will ensure
       going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
       production remains one billion bushels over last year. Additionally, we are also not too concerned about Argentina’s dry start to
        Q #2
       planting. A strong El Nino is already in place. El Nino, which brings above normal moisture to Argentina, has brought above trend
        Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
       yields in each of the eight events that occurred over the past 25 years. There is no consistent relationship with El Nino events and
       calves for a while or letting them go?
       Brazil’s corn yields. Brazil starts second crop corn planting in January. We still expect US corn futures to be at least $4.30.
       Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions?  This will depend upon your weaning sched-
       Q: What is the update on general industry liquidation?
       ule and your available feed supply.  I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
       right now probably dictates letting them go.  If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
       A: Officially it is still on. That can be said even with this year’s 14% smaller beef cow slaughter than last year. Last year is not
       minimize the grain in the ration.  Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn.  If the fat market
       a good comparison as it was the heaviest in over 50 years when compared with the starting beef cow herd. This year’s slaughter,
       stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
       for “higher feeders” is “Hope”.
       though lower than last year, will be about the fifth greatest liquidation in over 50 years.
                                                                             November  6th

                                                                               Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
                                                                                   Sale at 12:30
                                                                                      Sale Offering
                                                                              16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
                                                                              16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months             RH Standard Lad 0313
                                                                              16 - Spring Calving Bred Females                Solid As A Rock Sire Group
                                                                              16 - Spring Calving Black Females  Reynolds Herefords
                                                                                      Bred to Hereford Bulls
                                                                              8 -    Fall Calving Pairs          1071 County Road 1231
                                                                              6 -    Show Steer Prospects
                                                                              Both Horned & Polled Offered        Huntsville, MO 65259
                                                                                                          Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
                                                                               November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on
                                                                                      Display 3:00 P.M.
                                                                                    CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M.        • Barb: 660-676-4788
                                                                                   Call or E-Mail for Catalog  Email:
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