Page 8 - MWC 10-21-2021s

The Midwest Cattleman · October 21, 2021 · P8

MARKET REPORT

Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Daily

Live Cattle: Feeder Cattle:
There has been a recovery in pricing in the past two weeks. January feeder futures have recovered 53% of their prior six
December fats recovered 42% of the prior six week decline. The week break. We find this interesting as cash sale barn prices were
virus is still a topic of conversation but the declines in new num- stable for three weeks straight at +3%/+4% over two years ago in
bers, in place for a month, is easing some concern over both the the same weeks. The short term sale barn trade noted high calf
US consumer and labor at meat plants. marketings as many don’t want to risk high feeding costs. That
General economy information is still a concern. The past two is bearish for the coming later spring fed cattle numbers but does
Live Cattle: My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now. I’ve been not change the general narrative of coming tight supplies from
months of lower than expected job gains are an issue. Concerns Feeder Cattle: All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least. I do feel
placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now. I may need to temporarily
over a change with the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy a year over year basis. USDA’s 10/12 supply/demand report still
the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
place this on “hold” for a while. The higher placements the last three months will
are another. But the outside concerns don’t have to mean lower pegs 2022 US beef production at -3.0%.
further. The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
US consumer interest in beef. As a reminder, the US consum- they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders. Let’em get caught up a
It is the longer term situation for cow/calf producer that really
who wait”. I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the
least the end of the year. Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now
little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
er was still increasing beef demand before the virus as well as captures our interest. Another round of beef cow liquidation from
for about a month. Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year. This weeks
This market will rally....wait and see.
through it. We expect US cattle supply to show year over year mid-July through early September, ensures another good decline

report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year. This ain’t good. Low
imports and high exports have held this market up all summer. We’re starting to set for January 1 beef cow numbers up ahead.
declines starting in late October and running through early Feb-
lose some of that. I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.
ruary. Our target for December futures remains at $134.
Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
and my not be suitable for all investors. The recommendations
Rich Nelson express opinions of the author. The information they contain is
Allendale Inc. Allendale Inc. obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
815-578-6161 teed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.
rnelson@allendale-inc.com Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
What Does this Report Mean to Me?
Q #1
Q: What’s the update on feedlot recommendations?
What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011
Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April. Demand is
A: On the 9/30 update of this publication, we suggested securing all feeder cattle needs for the next six
going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
months. The close on that day was 154.17 for January feeder futures. We also suggested locking in any
corn needs for the next six months on any attempt for the December to see $5.10. That would have been
Q #2
Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
completed on 10/13. We suggest leaving fat cattle unhedged at this time.
calves for a while or letting them go?
Q: When will the best pricing hit next year for fats and feeders?
Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions? This will depend upon your weaning sched-
ule and your available feed supply. I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
A: Feeders typically see the best pricing in July/August. We would suspect April/June in 2022. Fats
right now probably dictates letting them go. If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
should see a moderate seasonal rally into February but it may not last beyond that into summer. Q3 and
minimize the grain in the ration. Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn. If the fat market
stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
Q4 may be the winner next year.
for “higher feeders” is “Hope”.
November 6th
Auction

Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
Sale at 12:30
Sale Offering
16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months RH Standard Lad 0313
16 - Spring Calving Bred Females Solid As A Rock Sire Group
16 - Spring Calving Black Females Reynolds Herefords
Bred to Hereford Bulls
8 - Fall Calving Pairs 1071 County Road 1231
6 - Show Steer Prospects
Both Horned & Polled Offered Huntsville, MO 65259
Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on
Display 3:00 P.M.
CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M. • Barb: 660-676-4788
Call or E-Mail for Catalog Email: reynoldscattle@cvalley.net