Page 6 - MWC 09-9-2021s

Drought and Herd Liquidation The Midwest Cattleman · September 9, 2021 · P6

By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University
Probably the most fre- The average culling rate heifers were 18.7% of the cow
quently asked question I am the past two years, since the herd, a level that would sup-
getting relates to how much cyclical peak in 2019, has port stable herd inventories.
the drought is adding to herd been 10.25%. Over the past The total number of beef
liquidation in 2021. It’s a 35 years, across cycles of ex- replacement heifers (which
difficult question for several pansion and liquidation, the includes heifer calves and
reasons. In the first place, we average herd culling rate has coming first calf heifers) and
don’t know what the indus- been 9.65% annually. How- the subset of heifers calving
try would have done in the ever, because the drought in 2021 were both fractionally ment heifers.
absence of drought this year. started so early in the year higher year-over-year in the Finally, there is the ques-
Having decreased the past (carried over from last year), January numbers. No doubt tion of how producers not in
two years from the 2019 peak, it is likely that beef cow producers in drought areas drought areas have respond-
would the industry have con- slaughter was shifted earlier have had to adjust replace- ed in 2021. Forage conditions
tinued liquidation in 2021 in in the year. Producers likely ment heifer numbers along have been good in some re-
any event? The turbulence have already culled cows that with cows. gions, and it is not clear if pro-
from the pandemic and other would have been culled later Some heifer calves that ducers may be holding more
black swan events makes this in the year anyway. I doubt were indicated as replace- cows and heifers to offset some
an even more difficult ques- that the 8.7% year-over-year ments in January likely were of the drought region impacts.
tion. beef cow slaughter rate will shifted into feedlots. It is In short, we don’t know what
What we do know is that persist for the remainder of not clear how many. Heifer would have happened in the
beef cow slaughter is up the year. Nevertheless, the slaughter is up 1.4% year-to- absence of the drought and
8.7% year-over-year through drought continues unabated date over last year but year- we don’t know for sure how
mid-August. If we assume and cow slaughter rates will over-year comparisons are the remainder of the year will
current level of year-over-year likely remain strong. difficult because of pandemic finish. After playing with lots
increase continues for the re- Cow slaughter is only part impacts last year. Coming of numbers and assumptions,
mainder of the year, it implies of the story about herd liq- first calf heifers in January my best guess at this point is
an annual beef cow slaughter uidation. It is less clear at may have been sold out of that the drought has added
of 3.55 million head. That this point in the year what is drought areas and moved to one-half to one percent of ad-
would be a net culling rate of happening with heifer reten- other parts of the country. The ditional beef herd liquidation
11.4%, the highest beef herd tion. The January Cattle re- July Cattle report showed a this year.
culling rate since 2011. port showed beef replacement 2.3% decrease in beef replace-

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