Page 21 - MWC 10-5-2023s
P. 21

Heifer Auction Receipts                                                                    The Midwest Cattleman · October 5, 2023 · P21
         Another      indicator,    al-
      though a much weaker one,
      is the total number of heif-
      ers being sold in auctions,
      direct, and video sales.
      Approximately 39% of all
      feeder  cattle  receipts  were
      heifers. Separating out the
      natural      seasonal     move-
      ments can show the overall
      trend in the data. This shows
      that heifers as a percentage
      of all stocker cattle receipts
      have been slightly decreas-
      ing, albeit slowly, since the
      early part of this year (see
      Figure  7). Comparing this
      percentage to the last cat-
      tle cycle indicates that we
      are at the same percentage
      as we were in 2011. If the
      current trend continues, we
      should see fewer heifers sold
      this fall. This should narrow
      the steer-heifer price spread
      up a bit.

      Conclusion
         In summary, as steaks,
      roasts, and other meats
      become      more     expensive,
      ground beef seems to be car-
      rying the day. Lots of sim-
      ple and easy-to-cook reci-
      pes  while  families  attempt
      to stay within a budget all
      while general inflation, food
      included,  continues  to  rise.
      Demand for lean beef is
      strong.  Combine  that with
      low imports of lean beef and
      cutter cow boxed beef prices
      are likely to remain high.
      This  primary  demand from
      consumers should contin-
      ue to support higher prices
      for the slaughter cows. Ulti-
      mately, the tradeoff will be
      between chasing after those
      $310 per cwt. values on 500-
      600 lb. feeder cattle in 2024
      and taking the cash up front
      this year. Producers need to
      be extremely diligent about
      calculating  how  much  they
      can  pay for replacement
      heifers as well as how much
      value that heifer has when
      she is retained rather than
      sold under current market
      conditions. Understanding
      what all needs to go right,
      and what can go wrong, for
      heifers and bred cows to pay
      themselves back will be ex-
      tremely important this fall.
   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26