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Heifer Auction Receipts The Midwest Cattleman · October 5, 2023 · P21
Another indicator, al-
though a much weaker one,
is the total number of heif-
ers being sold in auctions,
direct, and video sales.
Approximately 39% of all
feeder cattle receipts were
heifers. Separating out the
natural seasonal move-
ments can show the overall
trend in the data. This shows
that heifers as a percentage
of all stocker cattle receipts
have been slightly decreas-
ing, albeit slowly, since the
early part of this year (see
Figure 7). Comparing this
percentage to the last cat-
tle cycle indicates that we
are at the same percentage
as we were in 2011. If the
current trend continues, we
should see fewer heifers sold
this fall. This should narrow
the steer-heifer price spread
up a bit.
Conclusion
In summary, as steaks,
roasts, and other meats
become more expensive,
ground beef seems to be car-
rying the day. Lots of sim-
ple and easy-to-cook reci-
pes while families attempt
to stay within a budget all
while general inflation, food
included, continues to rise.
Demand for lean beef is
strong. Combine that with
low imports of lean beef and
cutter cow boxed beef prices
are likely to remain high.
This primary demand from
consumers should contin-
ue to support higher prices
for the slaughter cows. Ulti-
mately, the tradeoff will be
between chasing after those
$310 per cwt. values on 500-
600 lb. feeder cattle in 2024
and taking the cash up front
this year. Producers need to
be extremely diligent about
calculating how much they
can pay for replacement
heifers as well as how much
value that heifer has when
she is retained rather than
sold under current market
conditions. Understanding
what all needs to go right,
and what can go wrong, for
heifers and bred cows to pay
themselves back will be ex-
tremely important this fall.