Page 10 - MWC 02-25-2021s

FEEDER SUPPLY The stocker ratio is calculat-
continued from page 3
er cattle outside of feedlots (in
stocker or backgrounding pro-
grams) plus unweaned suckling
calves.
The estimated feeder sup-
ply for January 1, 2021 is 25.66
million head, fractionally lower
year-over-year (Table 1). The
fact that the 2020 calf crop was
down 1.3 percent year-over-year,
but the estimated feeder supply
was only down 0.2 percent com-
pared to last year indicates that
a larger proportion of calves and
yearlings were carried over from
2020 into 2021. This is consis-
tent with the fact that total feed- largest in Texas, Oklahoma and
lot placements were down 4.1
percent in 2020.
Feeder cattle supplies are
starting the year relatively large
but are expected to decrease as
2021 progresses. However, the
cattle on feed inventory on Jan-
uary 1 (14.71 million head) is a
record 57.3 percent of the feeder
cattle supply. This means there
are less than two head of feeder
cattle available outside feedlots
for every animal currently on
feed. This ratio has averaged
53.3 percent in the last decade
and is up from less than 40 per-
cent three decades ago. This
indicates that cattle are being
used much more intensively
over time.
BEEF COW
continued from page 3
inventory was not whether the and Utah combined for a drop areas adding beef cows could run
national number would decline, of 30,000 head (−3.6%), while low on grass and hay supplies if ered at the local feed store last
but rather how large the de- numbers were unchanged in Ar- drought conditions there were week, and we were all bemoan-
cline would be in certain states izona. Iowa suffered a decrease to persist or worsen through the ing the trials and tribulations
that were dealing with a severe of 15,000 head (−1.7%).
drought for much of the second
half of 2020.
Did producers with trouble
sourcing enough grass send cows
to slaughter markets, or did they
move into other geographical
areas that could provide enough
forage? It appears that the latter
was the more popular choice, as
many states on the periphery of
the worst drought effects showed
some of the largest increases in
beef cow numbers.
To begin 2021, the worst
drought conditions were cen-
tered in the southern Mountain
States, affecting Colorado, New
Mexico, Arizona and Utah. This
area has struggled with drought
for many months, and a look back
to late summer also revealed se-
vere-to-extreme drought condi-
tions in much of Iowa.
Colorado posted the largest
decline in beef cow numbers of
The Midwest Cattleman · February 25, 2021 · P10
ed as the feeder supply as a per-
cent of previous year calf crop west, Southwest and the South dle of the country on their way
and is 0.737 or 73.7% for the have low stocker ratios. This in- to feedlots.
U.S. in this report. This means dicates the general flow of stock-
that after replacement heifers, er and feeder cattle to the mid-
veal slaughter and feedlot place-
ment of calves are accounted for,
73.7% of last year’s calf crop is
still available as feeder supply.
The January Cattle report
also provides detailed informa-
tion for all states. (This is the
only time such information is
available; The July cattle report
is national level only.) Table 1
shows estimated feeder sup-
plies and stocker ratios for the
top ten states and for regions
of the U.S. Feeder supplies are
Kansas. These three states (des-
ignated the Southern Plains) ac-
count for over 28% of total feed-
er supplies. The Northern Plains
and Midwest regions also have
large inventories of feeder cattle.
States with stocker ratios well
over the U.S. average of 73.7%
indicate net inflows of cattle
for stocker and backgrounding
operations. The highest stock-
er ratios are found in Kansas,
Iowa, Oklahoma and Nebraska.
By contrast, some states keep
only small percentages of their
calf crops and are net exporters
to stocker states. Montana has
lowest stocker ratio of any state
at 34.8%. The northern and
southern Rockies, the North-
any state, losing 112,000 head of numbers. That certainly could LIFE
beef cows (−14.5%). New Mexico change in 2021, as some of the continued from page 5
A group of cattlemen gath-
spring and summer. experienced in this extended
Cattle movement in drought As uncertainty related to the period of snow and freezing
Most of the states who gained pandemic recovery continues weather. Some were telling of
beef cows were not those show- to plague cattle markets, it is all the baby calves that were
ing no drought effects, but rath- expected that cow-calf returns, scattered around the insides of
er those located just outside while improving this year ver- their homes, thawing out from
some of the hardest-hit areas. sus last year, will not reach a near-death, while others were
Texas and Oklahoma posted level that will reverse the inven- sharing their heroic tales of res-
a combined increase of 195,000 tory cycle soon. cuing calves from frozen ponds
head, even though areas of This likely will keep invento- or creeks.
drought concern existed within ry numbers declining and place I started complaining about
both states. In fact, both Texas cattle prices on an increasing the number of short-eared calves
and Oklahoma posted hay stock trajectory for the next few years. I’d have to sell this fall, when
levels as of Dec. 1 that were The magnitude of those price one of my neighbors observed
more than 5% below the average increases will heavily depend that, “Heck, your calves start out
of the previous 10 years. Kansas upon the strength of consumer with about two more inches of
and Florida were the other two beef demand both in the U.S. ear than regular calves, so they
states to show notable increases and abroad. ought to sell pretty, pretty good.”
in beef cows. Brown is a livestock economist
It appears that while the with the University of Missouri.
drought forced some movement He grew up on a diversified farm
of beef cows away from the hard- in northwest Missouri.
est-hit areas, it has not yet forced farmprogress.com
enough animals to slaughter to
play a large role in the national