Page 24 - Aug242023

MARKET REPORT The Midwest Cattleman · August 24, 2023 · P24
Winter Wheat Forage Prospects Better in 2023

Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Daily
By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University

In Oklahoma, winter will continue to increase this faster pace of declining beef pete for limited feeder cattle
wheat is used for three dif- fall. The Oklahoma com- production. In this beef pro- supplies and further enhance
ferent crops: wheat for grain bined auction price for 450- duction environment, hold- the general need to push cat-
only, wheat for forage only, 500 pounds Medium/Large Feeder Cattle: All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
Live Cattle: My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now. I’ve been ing cattle in relatively slow- tle through the system faster.
and dual-purpose wheat for #1 steers in the second week paced stocker production will A lower feedlot cost of gain
placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now. I may need to temporarily
pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least. I do feel
place this on “hold” for a while. The higher placements the last three months will
the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
grazing and grain. Produc- of August reached $302.05/ be less feasible. However, generally means feedlots can
have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
further. The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
ers interested in grazing win- cwt., the highest weekly among stocker production purchase lighter weight feed-
they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders. Let’em get caught up a
who wait”. I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the
ter wheat for dual-purpose or price since June 2015 and systems, high quality wheat er cattle and place them in
little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
least the end of the year. Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now
forage only will be thinking just 6.4 percent below the re- forage produces relatively feedlot earlier.
This market will rally....wait and see.
for about a month. Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year. This weeks
report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year. This ain’t good. Low rapid gains that may still be
about planting wheat by late cord high of $322.56/cwt. in In an environment of lim-
August and into early Sep- November 2014.
imports and high exports have held this market up all summer. We’re starting to economical. Careful monitor- ited feeder cattle supplies
tember. Much of the state As cattle numbers con- ing of rapidly changing mar- and lower feedlot cost of gain,
lose some of that. I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.
has better soil moisture and tinue to tighten this year, ket conditions is essential. the role of stocker produc-
soil temperature conditions the general incentive in the After two years of high tion is squeezed more to the
Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
for early-planted winter market is to push cattle into feedlot cost of gain, corn pric- very lightweight end of feed-
and my not be suitable for all investors. The recommendations
Rich Nelson
express opinions of the author. The information they contain is
Allendale Inc.
wheat than in recent years. feedlots sooner and through es may moderate with the er cattle and an incentive to
obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
Allendale Inc.
The exception is a few coun- the beef production system current crop. December corn market sooner rather than
teed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
815-578-6161

including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.
ties along the Red River in faster to keep beef produc- futures peaked as high as later with less weight gain
rnelson@allendale-inc.com
Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
the south-central part of the tion as high as possible. Beef $6.28/bushel in late June but prior to feedlot placement.
What Does this Report Mean to Me?
state which have received production is down about are currently around $4.85/ In the short run this gener-
relatively little rain this 4.8 percent year over year bushel. Grain markets re- al tendency may be partially
Q #1
summer. thus far in 2023 but is falling main very volatile with sum- offset by the strong uptrend
Wheat forage production more sharply recently, with
What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011 mer weather conditions, and in feeder cattle prices. In
conditions are only some of July beef production down the feed-grain supply and short, cattle and feed mar-
Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April. Demand is
the challenges for winter 6.7 percent compared to one price for the coming year are kets are extremely dynamic
going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
wheat stocker producers. year ago. Heifer slaughter uncertain. Still, the prospect and require constant evalua-
Dynamic cattle and grain decreased more sharply in of moderating feedlot cost of tion and nimble response to
Q #2
market conditions mean that July, down 5.5 percent year gain will be a further chal- changing conditions.
Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
producers will need to care- over year and contributing to lenge for stocker producers.
calves for a while or letting them go?
fully and frequently evalu- a 6.1 percent year over year Cheaper cost of gain will give
ate stocker budget prospects decrease in total yearling feedlots more ability to com-
Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions? This will depend upon your weaning sched-
this fall prior to stocker pur- (steer + heifer) slaughter
ule and your available feed supply. I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
chase. Calf prices are mov- for the month. Additionally,
right now probably dictates letting them go. If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
ing counter-seasonally high- beef cow slaughter was down • Featuring ‘ Program’
minimize the grain in the ration. Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn. If the fat market
er this summer suggesting 21.4 percent year over year Cattle Weekly
stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
that stocker purchase costs in July, contributing to the
for “higher feeders” is “Hope”. • DVAuction Service for convenient
online viewing & bidding
November 6th Selling All Classes of Cattle Wednesday @ 10:00 a.m.
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Auction
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• David Patton – 573-308-6655 •
Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
Visit our website at www.scrsvienna.com • or E-mail us at: SCRSVienna@gmail.com
Sale at 12:30
Sale Offering
16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months RH Standard Lad 0313
16 - Spring Calving Bred Females Solid As A Rock Sire Group
16 - Spring Calving Black Females Reynolds Herefords
Bred to Hereford Bulls
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6 - Show Steer Prospects
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Call or E-Mail for Catalog Email: reynoldscattle@cvalley.net