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CATTLE MARKET                      could harvest 250,000 more                              The Midwest Cattleman · August 20, 2020 · P10
      continued from page 3              fed cattle for the year,” Blach  head of fed cattle on a weekly  es above $160, that would be
                                         said. Coming into March, the  basis,” he said.                       a  positive  situation.”  What’s
      look at what’s ahead.              industry was right on track.         That’s possible, given the  more, he thinks we’ve seen the
         With a nod to the reality       “As a result of COVID, we’re  incentives the market is pro- lows in cattle prices not just
      we now all understand—that         going to be down 850,000 in- viding retailers to buy beef  for the year, but for the cycle.
      the unimaginable can indeed        stead of being up 250,000.  out front and feature it prom- That, of course, assumes we
      happen—consider some meg-          The result is our biggest cycli- inently in weekly specials.  don’t have any major COVID-
      atrends. First, there are plen-    cal supply of harvest numbers  With wholesale prices now at  19 setbacks.
      ty of cattle on feed, a portion    is going to occur next year.”      historic lows and beef quality       Then     there’s   the    cow
      of which are long-fed, and            That’s because of all those  meeting consumer expecta- herd. “The nation’s cow herd
      plenty of cattle outside feed-     feeders still waiting to be  tions, retailers have incentive  is shrinking. It was down
      lots waiting for a ride to town.   placed. But because of that,  to buy beef and packers have  375,000  head  last  year.  It  is
      USDA estimated that there          there will  be a hole in mar- incentive to harvest fed cattle. going to be down at least an-
      are around 300,000 feeder          ket-ready cattle for the next        That  means,  Blach  said,  other 300,000 head this year.
      cattle and calves outside feed-    few months, giving the mar- we’ll see improving fed cat- It may be down 400,000 this
      lots. Blach says it’s possible     ket a chance to clean up the  tle prices. “I think we’ll grind  year depending on how this
      that number is twice or even       long-fed cattle still at the  higher as these carry-over  drought situation plays out,”
      three times that figure.           feedbunk.                          numbers  are  brought  back  he said.
         “The bottom line is, we            Carcass weights are high,  into control. Over the next 60            That will lead to smaller
      didn’t place all these cattle      running plus or minus 5  to 90 days, you’re going to see  feeder cattle and calf supplies,
      through the spring.  There         pounds either side of 895  improvement in our fed cattle  smaller beef production levels
      were a million fewer cattle        pounds.  That will  continue  market.”                               and tighter harvest levels for
      placed from late January           to hang over the market but          Blach thinks that higher  2022, 2023 and 2024.  “That
      through June than there were       will get better as the market  grind will continue into 2021.  die is pretty well cast.”
      last year.”                        works  through  the  backlog  “It will average another $5               Given that markets will
         That’s a reflection of the      and gets more current.             higher and we’ll see that play  work if we just let ‘em, that
      million or so fed cattle that         That may happen sooner  out into other classes of cat- indicates a brighter light at
      weren’t harvested in March         than some predict, including  tle.”                                  the end of the cattle market
      and April. Beef producers will     me.  “We will chew through           In fact, Blach is optimistic  tunnel.
      deal with that hangover for a      that front-end supply be- that  we’ve  made  the  lows  in           BEEF
      while yet.                         tween now and October for  calf prices for the year. “They
         “We     were     anticipating   the most part if we continue  are  not  going  to  run  away,
      coming into the year that we       to harvest 520,000 to 525,000  but if we can keep calf pric-

      BEEF EXPORT                        cent below May 2019. On the  ERS data, U.S. beef exports  Zealand were down 9 and 5                       6
                                                                                                                                             1   0
                                                                                                                d i M
                                                                                                                              e S   n a
                                                                                                                                e t p
                                                                                                                        e l t t a C   t s e
                                                                                                                                      3   r e
                                                                                                                                         2   , 0
       BSE Clinic Time
      continued from page 3              import side, U.S. beef imports  are down 7.6 percent com- percent, respectively.
                                         were  up  15 percent  in  June  pared to same period in 2019
                                                                                                                 These data are likely not
      show beef exports were lower  2020 over the previous June  and beef imports are 3 per- surprising given the U.S. beef
      in June while imports were  and the highest June total  cent above 2019.                                supply  disruptions  in  April
       By Eldon Cole, University of Missouri Extension
      higher.                            since 2015.                          Japan,  South  Korea,  Can- through June. Lower pro-
        Has your bull had a breeding
                                           We’ve  scheduled  four  clinics  of  cows  keep  coming  back  in  progeny differences (EPDs) and
         According to the ERS data,
                                            Beef  exports  started  2020  ada, and Mexico are the top  duction and reduced prod-
       soundness  exam  (BSE)  since  where  you  can  get  your  bulls  heat.  There  are  no  other  out-    breeding programs or whatever
      U.S.  beef  exports  on  a  car- strong. First quarter exports  four export destinations and  uct availability certainly im-
       you pulled him from the breed-
                                         completely  examined,  given  ward signs of trich in the bull  is on your mind. Ed Trotter with
      cass weight basis were 183.3  were 10 percent above the  together accounted for 75  pacted international trade.
       ing pasture this summer? Fer-
                                         parasite control treatment and  or cow for that matter.
                                                                                                               Pfizer will be at some of the clin-
      million pounds in June 2020  same period of 2019. The sec- percent of beef exports in the  However, the demand side is
                                                                                                               ics  with  information  on  their
       tility and breeding ability can  vaccinated and be ready to turn
      which was 33 percent lower  ond quarter is when beef ex- first half of 2020. Exports  equally important and has
                                         out  if  everything  checks  out
                                                                                                               DNA evaluation program.
                                                                             Here are the dates and loca-
       fluctuate in bulls from year-to-
      than in June 2019 and the  ports experienced declines  were lower to each of these  impacted  imports  and  ex-
       year  and  season-to-season.  If  okay. In addition, if you’d like,  tions of our fall clinics.
                                                                                                                Call the above veterinary of-
       you’ve preg checked your cows  they can check your bull for the  countries during June 2020  ports. Weaker  macroeconom-
      lowest June total since 2009.  – down 23 percent from the                                                fices for your appointment time.
      This follows a similarly low  second quarter of 2019. For              October 11 - Barry County Vet  Of course, there’s a limit to the
       and found several open, it just  sexually  transmitted  disease,  with the exception of Cana- ic settings in many countries
      May 2020 which was 31 per- the year-to-date in available  da which was essentially un- combined with higher U.S.
       might  be  cause  to  check  him  trichomoniasis. Trich is on the  Services, Cassville
                                                                                                               number of bulls the clinics can
       out.                              rise in this part of the world. It’s  changed as compared to June  beef prices also played a part
                                                                             Contact: Dr. Voyd Brown, 847-
                                                                                                               accept so you may need to pick a
                                                                            2019. Exports to Mexico were  in the trade adjustments.
                                         suspected when a large number  2677                                   different time and/or a different
                                                                            down 61 percent in June com- Additionally, exchange rate
                                                                                                               veterinarian. It’s just important
        Buffalo Livestock Market                                            pared to June 2019.  Worth  changes play a key role. Beef
                                                                             October 12 - Kent Veterinary  to have your bulls checked out.
                                                                            Clinic, Billings
                                                                                                                A survey of cow-calf farms in
                                                                            noting, beef exports to China  production and prices were
                                                                                                               24 states in 2008 showed that
                                                                             Contact Dr. Harvey Kent, 744-
                                                                            were up 90 percent from June  much more normal in July
                                                                                                               about 25% do a semen evalua-
          Special   Cattle Sale                     Special      Sheep      2019 but accounted for only  (relative to  April-June) and
                                                                                                               tion on their bulls before turn-
        Vaccinated    Every                        Stock Cow      &         2.8 percent of total June 2020  it will be interesting to watch
                                                                             October 13 - Dake Veterinary  out. I doubt if we’re that high
                                    Watch our                               exports.                          how quickly trade adjusts to
          Cattle     Saturday     sale live on the   & Bull Sale  Goat Sale  Clinic, Miller                    in  southwest  Missouri.  The
                                                                              Canada, Mexico, Australia,  these changes moving for-
                                                                                                               October BSE clinics in the past
                                                                             Contact: Dr. Chuck Dake, 452-
                                    Internet at
           Sale     12:00 Noon                         and New Zealand are the top  ward.
                                                   3rd Tuesday  4th Tuesday  3301                              few years have found more prob-
         2nd Sat. of   Selling all classes                                  four import sources and to-
         Each Month   of cattle                                             gether accounted for 83 per-       lems with bulls than the clinics
                                                                                                               in  March.  Hot  weather  could
                                                                             October 14 - Countryside Ani-
         Lyle Caselman - Owner-Manager: 417-345-7876 • Mobile: 417-533-2944  cent of beef imports in the       be more of a problem than cold
                                                                            mal Clinic, Aurora
            Leon Caselman - Owner: 417-345-4514 • Mobile: 417-588-6185      first half of 2020. During June    when it comes to bull fertility. It
                                                                             Contact: Dr. Mike Bloss, 678-
                Howard Miller - Owner -Manager: 417-345-8612                2020,  imports  from Mexico        could even be from fescue toxins
                                                                            were up 58 percent over June
                      Call Lyle or r  Leon to find out what we can do for you:                                 consumed or a combination of
                                                                             Besides the BSE, I will be at  factors.
            Bud Hansen 417-462-7828 • John Sanwald 417-588-9113 • Bobby Cole 573-674-3131   2019, imports from Canada
                                                                            were up 4.2 percent, and im-
                                                                            the clinics to answer questions,
                        Barn 417-345-8122                                   ports from Australia and New
                                                                            discuss  bull  sales,  expected
                                                  Green Springs
                                   Performance & Efficiency Tested
                             BULL SALE                                                                90 BULLS
                                                                                                         200 on test
                                 Sunday, Nov. 21st, 1:00 P.m.                                        Selected from over
                                    at Mo-Kan Livestock, Butler, MO                                    8 Breeds
                                                                                                     Large Genetic Pool
                              “Only the best
                              pass the test”
                                                    • ANGUS • GELBVIEH  •  LIMOUSIN •
                                                         • LIMFLEX • SIMMENTAL •
                                                         • BRAUNVIEH • HEREFORD •
                                                              Call 448-7416 for information
                                                                           & sale Catalog
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