Page 10 - MWC 8-20-20s

CATTLE MARKET could harvest 250,000 more The Midwest Cattleman · August 20, 2020 · P10
continued from page 3 fed cattle for the year,” Blach head of fed cattle on a weekly es above $160, that would be
said. Coming into March, the basis,” he said. a positive situation.” What’s
look at what’s ahead. industry was right on track. That’s possible, given the more, he thinks we’ve seen the
With a nod to the reality “As a result of COVID, we’re incentives the market is pro- lows in cattle prices not just
we now all understand—that going to be down 850,000 in- viding retailers to buy beef for the year, but for the cycle.
the unimaginable can indeed stead of being up 250,000. out front and feature it prom- That, of course, assumes we
happen—consider some meg- The result is our biggest cycli- inently in weekly specials. don’t have any major COVID-
atrends. First, there are plen- cal supply of harvest numbers With wholesale prices now at 19 setbacks.
ty of cattle on feed, a portion is going to occur next year.” historic lows and beef quality Then there’s the cow
of which are long-fed, and That’s because of all those meeting consumer expecta- herd. “The nation’s cow herd
plenty of cattle outside feed- feeders still waiting to be tions, retailers have incentive is shrinking. It was down
lots waiting for a ride to town. placed. But because of that, to buy beef and packers have 375,000 head last year. It is
USDA estimated that there there will be a hole in mar- incentive to harvest fed cattle. going to be down at least an-
are around 300,000 feeder ket-ready cattle for the next That means, Blach said, other 300,000 head this year.
cattle and calves outside feed- few months, giving the mar- we’ll see improving fed cat- It may be down 400,000 this
lots. Blach says it’s possible ket a chance to clean up the tle prices. “I think we’ll grind year depending on how this
that number is twice or even long-fed cattle still at the higher as these carry-over drought situation plays out,”
three times that figure. feedbunk. numbers are brought back he said.
“The bottom line is, we Carcass weights are high, into control. Over the next 60 That will lead to smaller
didn’t place all these cattle running plus or minus 5 to 90 days, you’re going to see feeder cattle and calf supplies,
through the spring. There pounds either side of 895 improvement in our fed cattle smaller beef production levels
were a million fewer cattle pounds. That will continue market.” and tighter harvest levels for
placed from late January to hang over the market but Blach thinks that higher 2022, 2023 and 2024. “That
through June than there were will get better as the market grind will continue into 2021. die is pretty well cast.”
last year.” works through the backlog “It will average another $5 Given that markets will
That’s a reflection of the and gets more current. higher and we’ll see that play work if we just let ‘em, that
million or so fed cattle that That may happen sooner out into other classes of cat- indicates a brighter light at
weren’t harvested in March than some predict, including tle.” the end of the cattle market
and April. Beef producers will me. “We will chew through In fact, Blach is optimistic tunnel.
deal with that hangover for a that front-end supply be- that we’ve made the lows in BEEF
while yet. tween now and October for calf prices for the year. “They
“We were anticipating the most part if we continue are not going to run away,
coming into the year that we to harvest 520,000 to 525,000 but if we can keep calf pric-

BEEF EXPORT cent below May 2019. On the ERS data, U.S. beef exports Zealand were down 9 and 5 6
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BSE Clinic Time
continued from page 3 import side, U.S. beef imports are down 7.6 percent com- percent, respectively.
were up 15 percent in June pared to same period in 2019
These data are likely not
show beef exports were lower 2020 over the previous June and beef imports are 3 per- surprising given the U.S. beef
in June while imports were and the highest June total cent above 2019. supply disruptions in April
By Eldon Cole, University of Missouri Extension
higher. since 2015. Japan, South Korea, Can- through June. Lower pro-
Has your bull had a breeding
We’ve scheduled four clinics of cows keep coming back in progeny differences (EPDs) and
According to the ERS data,
Beef exports started 2020 ada, and Mexico are the top duction and reduced prod-
soundness exam (BSE) since where you can get your bulls heat. There are no other out- breeding programs or whatever
U.S. beef exports on a car- strong. First quarter exports four export destinations and uct availability certainly im-
you pulled him from the breed-
completely examined, given ward signs of trich in the bull is on your mind. Ed Trotter with
cass weight basis were 183.3 were 10 percent above the together accounted for 75 pacted international trade.
ing pasture this summer? Fer-
parasite control treatment and or cow for that matter.
Pfizer will be at some of the clin-
million pounds in June 2020 same period of 2019. The sec- percent of beef exports in the However, the demand side is
ics with information on their
tility and breeding ability can vaccinated and be ready to turn
which was 33 percent lower ond quarter is when beef ex- first half of 2020. Exports equally important and has
out if everything checks out
DNA evaluation program.
Here are the dates and loca-
fluctuate in bulls from year-to-
than in June 2019 and the ports experienced declines were lower to each of these impacted imports and ex-
year and season-to-season. If okay. In addition, if you’d like, tions of our fall clinics.
Call the above veterinary of-
you’ve preg checked your cows they can check your bull for the countries during June 2020 ports. Weaker macroeconom-
lowest June total since 2009. – down 23 percent from the fices for your appointment time.
This follows a similarly low second quarter of 2019. For October 11 - Barry County Vet Of course, there’s a limit to the
and found several open, it just sexually transmitted disease, with the exception of Cana- ic settings in many countries
May 2020 which was 31 per- the year-to-date in available da which was essentially un- combined with higher U.S.
might be cause to check him trichomoniasis. Trich is on the Services, Cassville
number of bulls the clinics can
out. rise in this part of the world. It’s changed as compared to June beef prices also played a part
Contact: Dr. Voyd Brown, 847-
accept so you may need to pick a
2019. Exports to Mexico were in the trade adjustments.
suspected when a large number 2677 different time and/or a different
down 61 percent in June com- Additionally, exchange rate
veterinarian. It’s just important
Buffalo Livestock Market pared to June 2019. Worth changes play a key role. Beef
October 12 - Kent Veterinary to have your bulls checked out.
Clinic, Billings
A survey of cow-calf farms in
noting, beef exports to China production and prices were
24 states in 2008 showed that
Contact Dr. Harvey Kent, 744-
were up 90 percent from June much more normal in July
about 25% do a semen evalua-
2222
Special Cattle Sale Special Sheep 2019 but accounted for only (relative to April-June) and
tion on their bulls before turn-
Vaccinated Every Stock Cow & 2.8 percent of total June 2020 it will be interesting to watch
October 13 - Dake Veterinary out. I doubt if we’re that high
Watch our exports. how quickly trade adjusts to
Cattle Saturday sale live on the & Bull Sale Goat Sale Clinic, Miller in southwest Missouri. The
Canada, Mexico, Australia, these changes moving for-
October BSE clinics in the past
Contact: Dr. Chuck Dake, 452-
Internet at
Sale 12:00 Noon www.CattleUSA.com and New Zealand are the top ward.
3rd Tuesday 4th Tuesday 3301 few years have found more prob-
2nd Sat. of Selling all classes four import sources and to-
Each Month of cattle gether accounted for 83 per- lems with bulls than the clinics
in March. Hot weather could
October 14 - Countryside Ani-
Lyle Caselman - Owner-Manager: 417-345-7876 • Mobile: 417-533-2944 cent of beef imports in the be more of a problem than cold
mal Clinic, Aurora
Leon Caselman - Owner: 417-345-4514 • Mobile: 417-588-6185 first half of 2020. During June when it comes to bull fertility. It
Contact: Dr. Mike Bloss, 678-
Howard Miller - Owner -Manager: 417-345-8612 2020, imports from Mexico could even be from fescue toxins
4011
were up 58 percent over June
Call Lyle or r Leon to find out what we can do for you: consumed or a combination of
Besides the BSE, I will be at factors.
Bud Hansen 417-462-7828 • John Sanwald 417-588-9113 • Bobby Cole 573-674-3131 2019, imports from Canada
were up 4.2 percent, and im-
the clinics to answer questions,
Barn 417-345-8122 ports from Australia and New
discuss bull sales, expected
Green Springs
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