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The Midwest Cattleman %u00b7 October 24, 2024 %u00b7 P23As I write this article in October 2024, beef cow inventory is at a 62-year low. Tight supplies have driven cattle markets and calf prices have increased by roughly $1 per lb. over the last two years. With limited heifer retention and beef cow slaughter on track to exceed 10% of beef cow inventory for the year, it appears very likely that beef cow numbers will be even lower going into 2025. At some point, we will expand this cowherd but there appears to be little evidence that producers have an appetite for that currently. In order for the cow herd to grow, we need to have the 3 Ps of herd expansion at the cow-calf level: profit, pasture and patience.The first P is probably the most obvious %u2013 profit. There will be no interest in cowherd expansion if money is not being made at the cowcalf level. While profit has largely been there recently, it is important to remember that these strong calf price levels are relatively new. We actually went from November 2015 to February 2023 (7 years and 4 months) with the state average price of a 550 lb medium / large frame #1-2 steer in Kentucky being under $2 per lb. Coming out of that challenging 7-year period, I think a lot of cow-calf operators have been cautious and guarded. Just as importantly, a lot of costs are substantially higher now than they were ten years ago, so comparing current calf prices to historical calf prices can be misleading. Still, I think current returns at the cowcalf level are sufficient to see heifer retention if the other two Ps fall into place.The second P is pasture, and I am using pasture broadly to describe forage / feed availability. While profit may be the first driver of expansion, no level of profit can make it rain and limited pasture and hay supplies can nix any interest in expansion in a hurry. As a recent example, drought was so widespread in the US during 2022 that expansion would have been highly unlikely, regardless of calf price levels. Both hay supplies and pasture and range conditions have improved since 2022, but a lot of areas have been dry this year, including my home state of Kentucky. Regardless, there is no doubt that both profit and pasture / hay are needed in order to see a significant interest in expansion.The final P is patience, and I actually think this may be the one that is most The 3 Ps of Herd Expansion: Profit, Pasture and PatienceDr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentuckycontinued on page 24