Page 8 - MWC 3-30-2023s

The Midwest Cattleman · March 30, 2023 · P8

MARKET REPORT

Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Daily

Live Cattle: Feeder Cattle:
The recent change in near term fundamentals has set pric- Declines in beef cow culling, discussed in the last issue, contin-
es back this month. Weekly processing has rebounded to where ue. The past four weeks have run -14% from last year’s extreme
it should be, 631,000 – 643,000 head, for now three weeks. Those levels. We’re not ready to suggest this is a change for the year to
weeks with few market ready numbers in February ran 614,000 – expansion. Current levels are still quite large considering our low-
628,000. US beef export sales remain weak at -25% from last year, ered beef cow herd. Though moisture in much of the Plains has
under USDA’s goal of -13%. In the weeks ahead there will be a improved since fall it is likely we need at least one good season of
normal seasonal increase in supplies in Q2 and therefore lowered moisture/forage before that switch is flipped. Additionally, if we do
pricing. start expansion perhaps next year the first phase of that is lower
But the general beef story for 2023 is still untouched. A season- beef production.
al increase in weekly kills will happen as scheduled for April and
May. But we’ll start seeing an impact of lowered feedlot placements Feeder Cattle: All you have to do is look at the corn market for a reason for the
Live Cattle: My thoughts center around this market stabilizing now. I’ve been
likely around mid-summer. We may not get the full 10% traditional pull-back in feeders. If I owned a feedlot I’d be nervous to say the least. I do feel
placing a bullish tilt to this market for some time now. I may need to temporarily
decline in cash cattle prices from spring highs to summer lows. Off the feeder market has overdone it to the downside and it will be tough to break it
place this on “hold” for a while. The higher placements the last three months will
have a negative impact on prices yet, so like they say, “All good things come to those
this year’s $165 peak that would imply $149 this summer. August further. The early corn harvest has most feeder buyers in the field and I don’t think
who wait”. I see production numbers staying over last years’ levels until at the
futures are currently implying a $155/$156 cash cattle trade. The they’ve really had time to concentrate on buying feeders. Let’em get caught up a
least the end of the year. Beef shipments have been lagging last years’ levels now
15 year seasonal average for June live cattle futures is for a Feb- little and they’ll head to town.....checkbooks in hand....bulging with “corn” money.
This market will rally....wait and see.
for about a month. Two weeks ago they were 8% lower than last year. This weeks
ruary 24 peak then low on May 31. The peak is on target this year,
report showed exports a whopping 56% lower than last year. This ain’t good. Low
February 24, but we’re not sure we’ll get the full downside push as
imports and high exports have held this market up all summer. We’re starting to
normal. We’re about at those $154 and $155 prices discussed in the
lose some of that. I just can’t pull the trigger yet on long term bullish hopes.
last issue for June and August futures.
Trading commodity futures involves substantial risk of loss
and my not be suitable for all investors. The recommendations
Rich Nelson express opinions of the author. The information they contain is
Allendale Inc. Allendale Inc. obtained from sources believed reliable, but is in no way guaran-
815-578-6161 teed. The author may have positions in the markets mentioned
including at times positions contrary to the advice quoted herein.
rnelson@allendale-inc.com Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
What Does this Report Mean to Me?
Q #1
Q: Any change in the corn outlook?
What do you think the price of fats will be in April 2011
Answer: It’s hard to see the forest for the trees here, but peering through the foliage I see $105.00 fats on the horizon for April. Demand is
A: No. We expect December futures to establish a spring low near $5.38. After a summer rebound ultimate lows are seen at $4.29
going to have to kick in though in order to get it.
for harvest lows. Keep all feed purchases hand to mouth at this time.
Q #2
Q: Have feeder prices topped for the year?
Due to the recent break in feeders, would you be holding your fall-weaned
calves for a while or letting them go?
A: Prices have exceeded any projection we could make based on numbers. But we hesitate to suggest March 9 was the top. There
Answer: What ever happened to the easy questions? This will depend upon your weaning sched-
is the seasonal support for feeders from April through August. Though the corn/feeder relationship is not as clean as people expect,
ule and your available feed supply. I’m long term bullish the feeder market but the “reality” of
it is likely our lower expectation for corn is a positive secondary factor.
right now probably dictates letting them go. If you keep them for an extra 30 days, make sure you
minimize the grain in the ration. Grow them on good forage....”sell” $4.50 corn. If the fat market
stays sluggish and corn prices don’t moderate, about the only thing you’ve got to hang your hat on
for “higher feeders” is “Hope”.
November 6th

Auction

Lunch at 11:00 a.m.
Sale at 12:30
Sale Offering
16 - 2010 Heifer Calves Jan. - May
16 - Breeding Bulls 7 to 18 months RH Standard Lad 0313
16 - Spring Calving Bred Females Solid As A Rock Sire Group
16 - Spring Calving Black Females Reynolds Herefords
Bred to Hereford Bulls
8 - Fall Calving Pairs 1071 County Road 1231
6 - Show Steer Prospects
Both Horned & Polled Offered Huntsville, MO 65259
Home: 660-277-3679 • Matt: 660-676-3788
November 5, 2010 Sale offerings on
Display 3:00 P.M.
CHB Dinner at 6:00 P.M. • Barb: 660-676-4788
Call or E-Mail for Catalog Email: reynoldscattle@cvalley.net