Page 6 - MWC 3-30-2023s

The Midwest Cattleman · March 30, 2023 · P6
Feedlot Inventories are Falling: How Far and How Long?

By Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University

The latest USDA Cattle on 4.9 percent from one year 2023 was the sixth consecu-
Feed report showed March 1 earlier. tive month of declining feed-
feedlot inventories at 11.645 Figure 1 shows monthly lot inventories year over year.
million head, down 4.5 per- inventory totals (blue line) With feedlot totals decreas-
cent year over year and the and a 12-month moving aver- ing since October, the MA ventories will drop close to
lowest March inventory since age (MA) of monthly feedlot peaked in September 2022 at the 2014 low of 10.375 mil-
2017. Placements in Febru- inventories (green line) since 11.8 million head, dropping lion head or possibly even
ary were down 7.2 percent 2011. While monthly feedlot to 11.63 million head as of lower at some point in the
year over year and the sixth totals vary seasonally, the this latest report, the lowest coming months.
consecutive monthly de- moving average removes the level since October 2020. The question of when that
crease in placements. In fact, normal seasonality so that Declining feedlot produc- low will happen is tricki-
placements were down 10 of changes month to month in- tion leads immediately to er. Although there are ex-
the past 12 months. Febru- dicate the underlying trend two questions. How low will pectations for diminishing
ary marketings were down in feedlot production. March feedlot inventories go in the drought conditions in 2023,
coming months? And when the drought continues for
will the low happen? Fig- now and it’s not clear wheth-
ure 1 may provide some in- er liquidation will be pushed
dications of what to expect. even further this year. The
The previous multi-year low smallest calf crop of the next
in the feedlot inventory MA few years will be in 2024 at
was in October 2014, after the earliest. Feedlot inven-
drought-forced herd liquida- tories will decline through
tion in 2011-2013. The cur- 2023 with the low in 2024
rent beef cow herd is slightly or beyond. Figure 1 shows
smaller than the 2014 herd that the feedlot inventory
level. The beef cow herd is MA decreased from August
likely to drop a bit more in 2012 until October 2014 fol-
2023. It is reasonable to ex-
pect that average feedlot in- continued on page 15

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