Page 15 - MWC 2-23-2023s

The Midwest Cattleman · February 23, 2023 · P15

Hesitant to Say ‘Record’ Cattle Prices, Expert Warns of Downside Risks

By Paige Carlson
As the dust settles after stock economist, associate will be favorable towards and we're not sure when
the release of the recent cat- extension professor and in- the end of the year. It’s also that's going to happen. It still
tle inventory report, it’s clear terim director of the Rural & possible that producers will depends on the drought, but
that the cattle herd took a Farm Finance Policy Analy- shift to a build-back mindset, it could certainly start this
major hit over the last 12 sis Center at the University retaining heifers to increase year. It's either late 2023 or
months with the lowest beef of Missouri, says, “We cer- herd numbers. into 2024 when we get that
cow numbers since 1962 and tainly got confirmation that Brown also believes “the real spike in prices.
the lowest total cattle herd in we have fewer cattle and structure of the cow-calf in- However, Brown is hesi-
eight years. cows out there at this point. dustry will have changed tant to use the word “record”
In a recent “AgriTalk” con- It just tells me we're going coming through this round” yet—noting the need for
versation, Scott Brown, live- to get awful tight on cattle of the cattle cycle—as some strong demand to go along
inventory as of the smaller, traditional op- with the weak supply to
we look over erations bow out of produc- reach record prices. It’s im-
the next 18 to tion due to retirement and portant to consider the price
24 months at without the next generation of feed and other factors that
this point.” to take over. may influence the prices
Assuming Nonetheless, with tight feedyards are willing to pay
the drought cattle numbers, high prices for cattle, Brown adds.
improves in can be expected. As 2023 unfolds, it’s pos-
2023, creat- “The real spike in prices sible that the demand for
ing improved will come when we do start cattle remains strong and
pasture con- that rebuilding process and producers retain heifers
ditions and we do start retaining heifers,” again—leading to a hole in
a sufficient says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma beef production that could go
corn crop, it’s State University livestock even deeper, Brown notes.
possible that marketing specialist, in a “The things we face today
Scott Brown, livestock economist at the University of Missouri, the cattle recent U.S. Farm Report dis- seem like an unchartered
explains how even in a bullish cattle scenario, there are still market and cussion. "That's what squeez- territory,” Brown says. “I
downside risks to consider. How much risk can you afford?
(Photo - OSU) cattle feeding es slaughter in the short run, continued on page 17

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