Page 15 - MWC 3-30-2023s
P. 15
FEEDLOT log for the next few years re-
continued from page 6 garding feedlot inventories.
lowing the previous drought The current state of cattle in-
episode. This suggests that ventories, especially the cow
the coming feedlot low might herd size, replacement heifer
not happen until late 2024 or inventories and expected calf
later. crops are generally analo-
This leads to a third ques- gous to the previous period
tion of how long low feedlot beginning in late 2012. In
inventories will persist. Fig- fact, the current situation
ure 1 shows that, from the MA reflects a more severe de-
low in October 2014, average pletion of female inventories
feedlot inventories increased compared to the 2012-2017
very slowly until the fall of period. Based on the analog
2017 before increasing more period, feedlot inventories
rapidly through 2018 and will likely decline from the
2019. Feedlot inventories feedlot inventory MA peak
remained relatively low for in September 2022 to a level
about three years. This was similar to the 2014 low in the
the period of herd rebuilding coming months and remain
when heifer retention was at relatively low for the next
the highest levels, with re- four years or longer.
placement heifer inventories
peaking in 2016 and 2017.
Not until heif-
er retention
slowed after
2017, were
additional
heifers avail-
able for feed-
lot placement.
The number
of heifers in
feedlots on
January 1 in-
creased by 23
percent from
2017 to 2019.
It appears
that the 2012-
2017 period is
a useful ana-
LIFE
continued from page 5
Dad didn’t know, or care, in the next two years that
what a Ph.D. was, but he you will be able to spend!”
made it abundantly clear to Plainly, he was trying to
me that if I ever encountered interject a little humor to
a professor that had made his make his point, that all the
living from cows, he might be data concerning beef supply
interested in what that pro- and demand would suggest
fessor had to say. Maybe. that our business will per-
I couldn’t help but dredge form extremely well for the
up these memories, last next 12-24 months. That was
week, as I attended a market welcome news to the entire
outlook meeting with a very group of cattlemen that were
learned academic in the field gathered that night. I, too,
of Economics. His computer- was elated to hear what the
ized power point presenta- experienced educator was
tion was extremely impres- saying, but, the words that
sive, and the gentleman was kept echoing through my
obviously very competent in head, were, “I wonder how
his area of expertise. Backed many cows this guy owns,
up by facts, figures, and data and I also wonder if he’s ever
that spanned fifty years, he had to make a living from
concluded that those of us in cows?”
the beef cattle business were
going to, “make more money
