An expected progeny difference (EPD) is a prediction of the genetic performance for a specific trait between the average offspring of two individual animals within a breed. Shane Bedwell, Chief Operating Officer and Director of Breed Improvement for the American Hereford Association, explained, “EPDs are not absolute numbers, but tools for ranking animals based on specific metrics.” Breed associations provide EPDs on registered cattle, along with breed averages and percentile ranks to indicate whether an animal is above or below average.

Producers often focus on management changes—adjusting calving dates, feed ingredients, or grazing protocols—to improve efficiency. While management matters, genetics ultimately determine an animal’s potential.

“A bull is not going to pass on whether he was fed better or worse, or born in a year with more or less favorable environmental conditions. The only thing a bull can pass on are his genetics,” said Matt Spangler, University of Nebraska Extension beef cattle genetics specialist. “To use EPDs for herd improvement, producers must define their specific production goals, assess their cow herd to identify where improvements could be made, and understand what each EPD represents,” he said.

Goals and Genetics Aligned

“The most important EPDs vary according to each producer’s goals,” Bedwell said. “EPDs focused on pounds are important for those selling calves, and carcass EPDs like marbling are becoming more relevant as the industry trends toward marketing cattle on a genetic basis.”

“Deciding if you will retain heifers, breed only mature cows, sell calves at weaning or as yearlings or retain ownership through the feedyard are important considerations. Knowing these things helps define what I call economically relevant traits, traits that are directly related to a source of cost or a source of revenue,” Spangler said.

For producers selling calves at weaning or as yearlings, EPDs such as calving ease (CE or CED), weaning weight (WW), and yearling weight (YW) are priorities. “Selecting for these traits can limit the number of assisted births while adding weight to older calves, increasing their value,” he said.

When producers retain replacements, maternal traits become equally important. Maternal calving ease, milk production, mature cow weight, maintenance energy, and EPDs reflecting the impact of milk production on growth, such as maternal weaning weight (MWW) or maternal milk and growth (M&G), help shape a productive cow herd. Traits like heifer pregnancy (HP or HPG) and stayability (STAY) provide insight into long-term reproductive success.

If retaining ownership through the feedyard, carcass traits become critical. Carcass weight (CW or HCW), fat or backfat (BF), marbling (MB or MRB), yield grade (YG), and ribeye area (REA or RE) relate directly to carcass value and beef quality.

True Comparisons

EPDs allow comparison within a breed, but not directly across breeds. Spangler noted that registered composite breeds such as Lim-Flex, Balancer, or SimAngus have EPDs comparable to purebreds.

Comparing bulls of different breeds requires additional tools. “MARC has calculated adjustment factors enabling across-breed comparison,” Bedwell said, referring to the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center. These factors are updated annually and are available through the Beef Improvement Federation.

Genomically-enhanced (GE) EPDs have a higher accuracy, particularly for young animals and lowly heritable traits, by incorporating DNA information into the calculation. This results in better genetic predictions before progeny data is available.

Seedstock producers collect a tissue sample, typically an ear punch, and submit it to a DNA lab. The results are reported to the breed association, who then calculates the GE EPDs.

Indices to Make Decisions

Another tool available is the economic selection index. An index combines multiple EPDs relevant to a specific production goal and weighs them by economic importance.

“If every calf born is destined for the feed yard and the producer retains ownership, the relevant EPDs for an index would relate to dry matter intake, carcass weight, marbling and yield grade,” Spangler said.

Differences in index values reflect expected differences in profitability per head. “When two bulls are compared based on their index value, we’re comparing them based on their genetic potential to improve profit,” Spangler said.

Economic indices simplify selection, but Bedwell stressed the importance of choosing the right one. “A terminal index is great if a producer is retaining ownership in a feedyard, but would be the wrong index when keeping replacement females,” he said. Most breed associations offer terminal, maternal, or all-purpose indexes.

EPDs continue to expand as new traits are added. Recent examples include functional longevity EPDs and dry-matter intake EPDs. “We’ve always had EPDs for weight, but not for how much feed they’re actually eating,” Spangler said.

Spangler encourages producers to ask questions. “Don’t hesitate to ask what the EPDs and indices mean; some will be very relevant to your operation.” Bedwell added that advancing technology will continue improving the accuracy and economic relevance of EPDs.

A Profitable Genetic Improvement

Bedwell and Spangler agree that EPDs are among the most effective tools available for improving herd performance and profitability, especially when combined with phenotypical data. “Relative to structural soundness, some breeds have foot and leg score EPDs,” Spangler said. “Without good feet, legs, and structure, genetic merit has limited value.”

He often says that “Producers should find the [animals] that make them the most money and learn to like the way they look.”

“EPDs work well in identifying economically relevant traits based on revenue generation in operations,” Bedwell said. By selecting animals with traits that align with specific goals, producers can make measurable progress.

Spangler emphasized that understanding breed averages is essential, noting that selection is not always about choosing the highest-ranking animal. “If I’m trying to make my replacement female smaller, I may want to be below breed average for something like mature cow weight,” he said.

“Economic indices emphasize profit, helping producers evaluate traits to decide on what animals to purchase, but also which animals to sell or retain,” Bedwell said.

Ultimately, success comes from matching genetics to the operation. “Selection depends on what you’re trying to do and how your herd currently performs. What’s best for you, may not be best for me,” Spangler said.

As EPDs continue to evolve, producers are encouraged to ask questions and use these tools intentionally. “EPDs allow us to compare animals based on genetic potential, and focusing on those differences in light of each producer’s goals enables improvement in each herd and in the economic situation of each enterprise,” Spangler said.

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